Sunday, August 29, 2004
Gaston and Frances...
Jason Samenow @ 10:33 AM
Tropical Storm Gaston made landfall northeast of Charleston, SC just about an hour ago. He produced a few wind gusts higher than 80mph, but is losing steam as he moves over land. Rain is now the primary threat and Gaston may drop 5-10" of rain over portions of northeast South Carolina, and central North Carolina. As Gaston moves into Virginia, he'll interact with a front, now over the Ohio Valley. The question becomes: how will Gaston affect our weather? Based on model trends/forecasts, and the timing of and interaction with the front, I think we may see a period of heavy rain from Gaston (and the front) tomorrow--mostly during the afternoon. Rainfall totals shouldn't be huge, but up to an inch is possible.
As for Frances, she looks very impressive on satellite, and is a Category 4 storm. She'll probably become a Category 5 storm at some point or another. The question remains: where will she hit? The Tropical Prediction Center is starting to talk about that a bit:...[MODEL FORECASTS MOVE] THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.If Frances makes landfall in the U.S. it will likely be over the Labor Day weekend, anywhere from the Florida Keys to Outer Banks of NC.
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