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Presenting Hurricane Frances

Josh Larson @ 5:51 PM

Our tropical cyclone which is currently 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has strengthened significantly over the past 24 hours to become Hurricane Frances.

The TPC's latest forecast advisory explains that:

FRANCES RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON... FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

Numerous global tropical cyclone models suggest that Hurricane Frances will hold together and continue to strengthen over the next 5 days as it heads to the north-northwest. After five days, there is considerable uncertainty as to its potential path. I've drawn in a few hypothetical, paths as there are multiple scenarios, and a lot will depend on the strength and location of the Bermuda high as well as any troughing along the east coast; meteorologists will be keeping their eyes on those two main atmospheric features over the next week, I would imagine.

One can see, however, that Hurricane Frances may curve out to sea before posing problems to the continental US, that it may continue westward, with potential impacts to the Gulf Coast states or Southeast, or that it may trek northwest, with possible impacts further up the east coast. It is much too early to say with any confidence which path may be favored now, though this Hurricane surely bears watching over the next week to ten days....


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