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Heavy rain today?

Jason Samenow @ 12:14 AM

The remnants of Hurricane Jeanne will move through today, and some heavy rain is a good possibility. Depending on the exact track of Jeanne's remnants, the heavy rain may last through the afternoon.
Computer model rainfall forecasts

The image above shows the rainfall forecasts from two computer models. The GFS has the remnants tracking further north and west -- which results in a greater rainfall forecast for our area -- about 1.50 to 2 inches. The ETA model has the storm track further south and east -- which would result in just an inch or so and would also cutoff the rain earlier. Based on radar trends and the GFS' superior handling of tropical systems, the heavier rain scenario seems more likely. There is also a slight possibility that some severe storms could form south and east of Washington, with isolated tornadoes. [I'm not expecting a repeat of the outbreak associated with remnants of Ivan over our area.]

After today, it will clear out -- with nice, mostly sunny fall weather the rest of the week. It will be a relief to have a respite from what has been a historic hurricane season. This snippet from the Tropical Prediction Center:
"THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON TO DATE UP UNTIL SEPT 27 EVER SEEN IN TERMS OF NOAA'S ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX. IN FACT...IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY...2004 WOULD BE THE 5TH MOST ACTIVE ACE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851...WITH 1950-1893-1995-1926 BEING THE TOP 4."
In other news, Anchorage, Alaska received its heaviest early season snow on record yesterday. Six inches fell and the foliage has hardly started to change... Speaking of snow, have you entered our snowfall prediction contest?

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