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Winter Storm Watch

Jason Samenow @ 12:30 AM

It's official -- we're under a winter storm watch for the weekend, which means the potential exists for at least 5 inches of snow. Here's an excerpt from the National Weather Service Statement:
A STORM DIVING DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...BUT LOOKS LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
Having digested all of the model guidance (which is somewhat conflicting but less so than in previous days), I concur with this prognosis. Generally speaking, I expect 4-8" of snow to fall across the area on Saturday, with the possibility of some sleet mixing in. Here's my preliminary accumulation map and storm assessment (I will update this tonight):


Overall storm assessment
Storm Impact:

Travelcast (Saturday):

Schoolcast (for Monday):
Here's how I see things evolving:
  • Snow breaks out Saturday morning between 8am and noon.
  • Moderate snow Saturday afternoon
  • Snow, possibly mixing with sleet Saturday evening between 4-8pm
  • Intermittent light snow tapering to flurries overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, becoming windy
  • Very cold Sunday, with highs near 20 and wind chills near zero. Blowing and drifting snow possible

I should emphasize, this is a first crack at this forecast and is subject to adjustment. I will next update this late tonight or early tomorrow morning. If there are major developments or important changes to the forecast during the daylight hours, I may post an intermediate update. Otherwise, minor updates and discussions will be contained in the comments section below.

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