Friday, August 12, 2005
Bad health triple whammy, and Ocean City storm vulnerability
Jason Samenow @ 12:01 AM
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TODAY
If you're sensitive to heat, have respiratory issues and fair skin, today is not your day. It's going to be hot (call it 95, but with a peak heat index near 105), the air quality unhealthy (for sensitive groups, code orange) and the UV Index high (a value of 7). In other words, to avoid nasty things like heat stroke, asthma and sunburn, park yourself in front of a computer terminal in an air conditioned space and chill out as you enjoy the fine content here at CapitalWeather.com...
A Fair weekend
The weather on Saturday and Sunday is going to be a lot like the weather today -- hazy, hot and humid, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Given some of the health issues mentioned above, take it easy -- drink plenty of fluids, seek shade, wear sunglasses, hats and sunscreen (SPF 15 or higher) if you're staying outside for extended periods -- especially between about 11am and 3pm.
There are several fairs going on this weekend in Howard, Prince William and Montgomery counties. Best time to head to the fairs would be in the evening hours when temperatures, air pollution and UV all are on the downswing.
If you wanna get the heck outta here, it looks to be a pretty good beach weekend -- with air temperatures near 90 and comfy water temps around 80 in places like Bethany, Rehoboth and Ocean City.
Is Ocean City "screwed" in a hurricane scenario?
As it turns out, Ocean City has only had a direct hit from a hurricane once in the last 134 years according to HurricaneCity.com. That's lucky, because the aerial shot shown below makes it painfully obvious that the narrow inlet on which Ocean City rests is extremely prone and vulnerable to a landfalling storm.
As a matter of fact, the water passage cutting across the south side of the inlet was opened during the 1933 hurricane which was not even a direct hit. The following excerpt from a USGS website is nothing if not foreboding:
The most damaging storm to hit Ocean City within historic times was the Five-High or Ash Wednesday northeaster of early March 1962. It caused severe erosion and flooding along much of the middle Atlantic Coast. For 2 days, over five high-tide cycles, all of Fenwick Island except the highest dune areas was repeatedly washed over by storm waves superimposed on the 2-meter-high storm surge. Property damage to Ocean City alone was estimated at $7.5 million. Given the dense development of the island over the last 20 years, damage from a similar storm would today be hundreds of millions of dollars.A discussion thread at the EasternUSwx.com inspired this write-up.
Tropical Update
Was the previous discussion a suggestion that Ocean City could be under the gun from Irene? Negative. Let me borrow a passage from last night's discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.In fact, it's not clear Irene will make landfall along the East Coast at all. AccuWeather's official forecast now calls for the storm to just miss the Outer Banks before curving out to sea. Gary Gray of Millennium Weather is thinking along the same lines as is Steve Gregory from Weather Underground. Meteorologist Dave Tolleris of WxRisk.com, however, expects landfall north of Charleston, SC late Monday.
As of now, Irene is a moderate tropical storm with winds near 50 mph. She should strengthen into a hurricane in the next day or two as she continues moving west northwest. She's then going to get caught in between a couple areas of high pressure, which will slow her down, just as she nears the U.S. East Coast. Whether she has enough momentum to make it to shore before an eastward moving mainland weather system picks her up and curves her back out to sea is the question.
I tend to think she'll flirt with the Outer Banks without making a direct hit before heading back out to sea (so my thinking is similar to AccuWeather's). Admittedly, this is pure speculation, but certainly a plausible scenario given the overall pattern and climatology.
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