Thursday, August 25, 2005
Katrina Making Waves
Jason Samenow @ 11:51 PM
THE FORECAST Today: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid 80s Saturday: More of the same. Temps again climbing into the mid 80s. Sunday: Partly cloudy and a bit more humid, with a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid 80s. |
THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.
Pictured: Doppler rainfall estimates suggest 15-20" of rain fell in the purple and white areas shown just to the southwest of Miami(left image). The heaviest rain coincided with the highest cloud tops (in dark red) shown on the infrared satellite image (right image). Images from 11pm yesterday.
Katrina will move northwestward and then northward through the eastern Gulf before likely making landfall along the Florida panhandle Sunday night. I predict she will be at least a dangerous Category 3 storm when she makes her second landfall.
The track guidance brings the remnants of Katrina into western Virginia next Tuesday night. Given a slug of (warm advection) moisture that may break out ahead of Katrina as she moves inland, we could feel her effects here in DC as early as Monday. The potential certainly exists for a heavy rain event from Katrina's remnants on Tuesday and Wednesday as she may move right over us, but we could also miss the brunt of her given the possibility of a more westerly (more likely) or easterly (less likely) track.
See WeatherNation's Wire for additional Katrina news and information.
Briefly...
- The National Weather Service claims its forecasts will be improving thanks to increased resolution in its GFS model. More from the Washington Post.
- The Weather Channel is getting in touch with its softer side according to the New York Daily News: Weather Channel's emotional climate
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