Wednesday, October 26, 2005
BRrrrING on Wednesday!
A. Camden Walker @ 12:02 AM
Forecast
Leave theumbrella at home. Wear the windbreaker. And three layers of clothing. Those lucky enough to get into the mid-50s this afternoon will not feel all that warm. Granted, our solid overcast sky will give way to more and more sunshine--but Autumn shall fully assert itself today.
Last night, despite the death-by-drizzle conditions, I think everyone had a great time at the annual High Heel Drag Race (I don't think anyone slipped!). Beforehand, we warmed our hearts (and freezing hands) by filling our happy hour glasses for the Whitman-Walker Clinic's AIDS Marathon. A great cause followed by great costume jewelry! Temperatures kept trying to plunge below 40. brrr.
Hey, at least we didn't have snow like those to the west near the famous Luray Caverns. Surprisingly, WaPo sent a photographer on a distant, snowy drive along Skyline Drive--it looks like Tracy Woodward caught some shots while it was still falling! Now is the last time this season to drive up there for a last peek at Leaf Foliage (tinted by some white?). Be sure to look east of I-81, perhaps exiting around New Market, VA.
Wary Wilma
She is gone. At right, I want to display two distinct fields of moisture and clouds. Our cold rain was nothing tropical in nature whatsoever. Notice how far from the coast Wilma was by Tuesday morning when we were socked in? Wilma actually began to develop her own cold front (which you can begin to see in the cloud pattern) plus her low-level & mid-level centers decoupled via the Jet Stream shearing her apart. I disapprove of the "merger theory" running rampant. Only until 5pm Tuesday afternoon, while still being identified by the National Hurricane Center as a Category 1 hurricane, were advisories discontinued on Wilma. At that time her identity was still distinct yet rapidly becoming extra-tropical and heading toward Newfoundland. There were no direct effects on weather north of Florida from Wilma. The jet stream trough plowing through our region in and of itself developed a low pressure "Nor'easter" (cold-core system). Indirectly, some of Wilma's moisture began siphoning off into our Eastern Shore briefly Monday night, when she was south of the amplifying trough sitting off the East Coast--but quickly the Nor'easter developed its own moisture field based on mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics such as temperature gradients present both over land & ocean waters off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Many weather models (except GFS) were mistakenly identifying these two character foils--two very distinct atmospheric variables--as the same system .. and human forecasters were rarely seeing this wrong combination. The equations spitting back out of the supercomputers were not taking into account TWO features. A Perfect [mid-latitude] Storm would need a slower-moving and weaker tropical system if assimilation were to occur. "More Humans, Less Robots!"
Burgeoning Beta?
Watch the Southwest Caribbean Sea with me today. A weak (1009mb) low pressure system has developed. But organized convection around this vortex must persist, and the center must not head into Costa Rica (or the Pacific for that matter). Anything the Atlantic Basin can brew now, is sheer showing off-- A 23rd Tropical Storm would shatter 1933's previous record of 21 named storms. Remember we still have until November 30, when the season ends. I joked with a co-worker that we may get to Delta, but a lot of ingredients will have to remain as well aligned as they have through what typically is a very slow, final month of the season. Even if upper-level conditions allow for tropical waves to remain intact for long period of time, this gift-of-tropical-life is quickly mitigated by November's sea surface temperatures drastically cooling with the approach of Northern Hemispheric Winter.
Leave the
Last night, despite the death-by-drizzle conditions, I think everyone had a great time at the annual High Heel Drag Race (I don't think anyone slipped!). Beforehand, we warmed our hearts (and freezing hands) by filling our happy hour glasses for the Whitman-Walker Clinic's AIDS Marathon. A great cause followed by great costume jewelry! Temperatures kept trying to plunge below 40. brrr.
Hey, at least we didn't have snow like those to the west near the famous Luray Caverns. Surprisingly, WaPo sent a photographer on a distant, snowy drive along Skyline Drive--it looks like Tracy Woodward caught some shots while it was still falling! Now is the last time this season to drive up there for a last peek at Leaf Foliage (tinted by some white?). Be sure to look east of I-81, perhaps exiting around New Market, VA.
Wary Wilma
She is gone. At right, I want to display two distinct fields of moisture and clouds. Our cold rain was nothing tropical in nature whatsoever. Notice how far from the coast Wilma was by Tuesday morning when we were socked in? Wilma actually began to develop her own cold front (which you can begin to see in the cloud pattern) plus her low-level & mid-level centers decoupled via the Jet Stream shearing her apart. I disapprove of the "merger theory" running rampant. Only until 5pm Tuesday afternoon, while still being identified by the National Hurricane Center as a Category 1 hurricane, were advisories discontinued on Wilma. At that time her identity was still distinct yet rapidly becoming extra-tropical and heading toward Newfoundland. There were no direct effects on weather north of Florida from Wilma. The jet stream trough plowing through our region in and of itself developed a low pressure "Nor'easter" (cold-core system). Indirectly, some of Wilma's moisture began siphoning off into our Eastern Shore briefly Monday night, when she was south of the amplifying trough sitting off the East Coast--but quickly the Nor'easter developed its own moisture field based on mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics such as temperature gradients present both over land & ocean waters off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Many weather models (except GFS) were mistakenly identifying these two character foils--two very distinct atmospheric variables--as the same system .. and human forecasters were rarely seeing this wrong combination. The equations spitting back out of the supercomputers were not taking into account TWO features. A Perfect [mid-latitude] Storm would need a slower-moving and weaker tropical system if assimilation were to occur. "More Humans, Less Robots!"
Burgeoning Beta?
Watch the Southwest Caribbean Sea with me today. A weak (1009mb) low pressure system has developed. But organized convection around this vortex must persist, and the center must not head into Costa Rica (or the Pacific for that matter). Anything the Atlantic Basin can brew now, is sheer showing off-- A 23rd Tropical Storm would shatter 1933's previous record of 21 named storms. Remember we still have until November 30, when the season ends. I joked with a co-worker that we may get to Delta, but a lot of ingredients will have to remain as well aligned as they have through what typically is a very slow, final month of the season. Even if upper-level conditions allow for tropical waves to remain intact for long period of time, this gift-of-tropical-life is quickly mitigated by November's sea surface temperatures drastically cooling with the approach of Northern Hemispheric Winter.
Ad Nauseam --from the National Hurricane Center 5:00am Tuesday Morning
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...
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