Monday, October 03, 2005
The week ahead: Big changes, active weather???
Jason Samenow @ 12:30 AM
Wow, what a weekend: clear, cool nights followed by warm, sunny afternoons. We'll have one more day of this kind of weather before a gradual increase in cloudiness midweek followed by some storminess and a cool down late in the week. Read ahead for the daily details...
The week ahead forecast details
Just like the last couple of days, high pressure to our northeast will direct light easterly winds over the area today. Under the influence of this high, expect a whole lot of sunshine and temperatures reaching the low 80s.
Expect a slight increase in cloudiness and humidity Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front (but it won't be summer-like humidity). High temperatures should be around 80 both days.
By Thursday, said cold front should arrive bringing a decent possibility of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80 depending on the amount of sunshine we get.
On Friday and Saturday, it should cool down significantly (highs in the 60s), but the details of the weather are VERY uncertain. The cold front triggering Thursday's rain may stall off the coast and the first fall coastal storm could form. This could produce a cool rain Friday into Saturday--although the most significant effects, if the storm forms, are more most likely to be to our east and northeast. The other wild card in this whole equation is the possible development of a tropical system (see tropical update below) in the Gulf of Mexico, which could also interact with this front. Note, however, said tropical system hasn't even formed, so confidence is low for this scenario. Bottom line is stay tuned to this complicated situation.
Any storminess should move out of here by Sunday, but it will likely remain cooler than average, with highs in mid to upper 60s.
Tropical Depression 19 died yesterday and Stan became depressed. But I'm expecting Stan will bounce back today as he emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. He may strengthen into a weak hurricane before he makes a second landfall in Mexico along its southern Gulf shore Wednesday.
There is a disturbance east of the Bahamas that will need to be monitored very closely. Some model guidance show it developing and taking a track not unlike Katrina and Rita -- moving westward between Cuba and South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week (when it may interact with the cold front discussed above).
Forecast contest and evaluation
For last week's 7-day forecast, I had no competitor. In terms of accuracy, I averaged 2.7 degrees off/day, which is a "B" on CapitalWeather.com's grading scale.
This week, I am participating in Tony Pann and Justin Berk's 7-day battle as featured on their WeatherTalk Radio program (on WCBM 680 Baltimore -- on Sundays from 3-4pm). Accordingly, I'm forecasting for BWI instead of Reagan National. All of our forecasts are posted in the graphic above and the results will be heard on next Sunday's program (and posted here next Monday). Tony indicates the forecasts will also be available on the WeatherTalk website. Who's going to win???
More on WCBM's WeatherTalk Radio show
If you're at all interested in weather, you'll love Tony and Justin's program. They work in weather news, weather trivia, weather/climate commentary, weather music and cap the program off with the 7-day battle. The show is fun, edgy (often in a humorous way, sometimes in a controversial way; other times both ways), entertaining and educational. Seriously, Tony and Justin have a great chemistry together, and put together a quality show each week. I highly recommend it.
By the way, did you know that in 40% of the seasons in which a Category 5 hurricane has formed, the Yankees have won the World Series? This bodes pretty well for Yankees fans (I'd say 40% odds are pretty good). Justin Berk came up with that piece of trivia for yesterday's program.
Justin also predicted Baltimore will receive 30" of snow or more this winter. Stay tuned, CapitalWeather.com's winter forecast will be out before the end of the month.
The week ahead forecast details
Just like the last couple of days, high pressure to our northeast will direct light easterly winds over the area today. Under the influence of this high, expect a whole lot of sunshine and temperatures reaching the low 80s.Expect a slight increase in cloudiness and humidity Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front (but it won't be summer-like humidity). High temperatures should be around 80 both days.
By Thursday, said cold front should arrive bringing a decent possibility of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80 depending on the amount of sunshine we get.
On Friday and Saturday, it should cool down significantly (highs in the 60s), but the details of the weather are VERY uncertain. The cold front triggering Thursday's rain may stall off the coast and the first fall coastal storm could form. This could produce a cool rain Friday into Saturday--although the most significant effects, if the storm forms, are more most likely to be to our east and northeast. The other wild card in this whole equation is the possible development of a tropical system (see tropical update below) in the Gulf of Mexico, which could also interact with this front. Note, however, said tropical system hasn't even formed, so confidence is low for this scenario. Bottom line is stay tuned to this complicated situation.
Any storminess should move out of here by Sunday, but it will likely remain cooler than average, with highs in mid to upper 60s.
***Tropical Update***
Tropical Depression 19 died yesterday and Stan became depressed. But I'm expecting Stan will bounce back today as he emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. He may strengthen into a weak hurricane before he makes a second landfall in Mexico along its southern Gulf shore Wednesday.
There is a disturbance east of the Bahamas that will need to be monitored very closely. Some model guidance show it developing and taking a track not unlike Katrina and Rita -- moving westward between Cuba and South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week (when it may interact with the cold front discussed above).
Forecast contest and evaluation
For last week's 7-day forecast, I had no competitor. In terms of accuracy, I averaged 2.7 degrees off/day, which is a "B" on CapitalWeather.com's grading scale.
This week, I am participating in Tony Pann and Justin Berk's 7-day battle as featured on their WeatherTalk Radio program (on WCBM 680 Baltimore -- on Sundays from 3-4pm). Accordingly, I'm forecasting for BWI instead of Reagan National. All of our forecasts are posted in the graphic above and the results will be heard on next Sunday's program (and posted here next Monday). Tony indicates the forecasts will also be available on the WeatherTalk website. Who's going to win???
More on WCBM's WeatherTalk Radio show
If you're at all interested in weather, you'll love Tony and Justin's program. They work in weather news, weather trivia, weather/climate commentary, weather music and cap the program off with the 7-day battle. The show is fun, edgy (often in a humorous way, sometimes in a controversial way; other times both ways), entertaining and educational. Seriously, Tony and Justin have a great chemistry together, and put together a quality show each week. I highly recommend it.
By the way, did you know that in 40% of the seasons in which a Category 5 hurricane has formed, the Yankees have won the World Series? This bodes pretty well for Yankees fans (I'd say 40% odds are pretty good). Justin Berk came up with that piece of trivia for yesterday's program.
Justin also predicted Baltimore will receive 30" of snow or more this winter. Stay tuned, CapitalWeather.com's winter forecast will be out before the end of the month.
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