Friday, October 21, 2005
Wet Weekend?, Wilma Wild
Jason Samenow @ 1:00 AM
The weekend will be wicked (well, not wholly), Wilma is a wonder and everyone elates as the alliteration ends.
The Forecast
A low pressure area over the Tennessee Valley will produce scattered light rain today. As we're under a bit of a cool wedge and northeast winds, temperatures will not rise much -- only maxing out in the mid 50s.
A period of steadier rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning before a possible break in the action early Saturday afternoon as a warm front passes through the area. By late afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are possible as the cold front approaches. High temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday should range from 0.5-1".
On Sunday, behind the cold front, expect a blustery and cool (but dry) day with a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures should be 55-60.
Wilma Update
At 11pm last night, Wilma remained a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds around 150mph. Here are the impacts AccuWeather expects over the Yucatan peninsula today as the storm flirts with the coastline:
For a mega-list of Wilma resources, please see WxNation's log.
Assessing Wilma Forecasts for Florida
Compare and contrast these three forecast statements:
From the National Hurricane Center, 11pm discussion:
By the way, I would assign the follow landfall intensity probabilities:
25% Category 3 or higher
50% Category 2
25% Category 1 or lower
I believe Wilma will not move inland over the Yucatan, but just flirt with the coastline. I believe she will gradually weaken after as she encounters dry air and shear on her northeastward trek, but should still be a formidable hurricane at landfall in southwest Florida due to warm waters in the southern Gulf.
Wilma: Beyond Florida
Confidence remains very low regarding what Wilma does after she impacts Florida. There's still some chance (25%) she could merge or phase with upper level low that will be over the Northeast early next week. However, the more likely scenario remains that she goes out to sea.
On screen
CBS is going to air a sequel to the horrendous made-for-TV movie "Category 6" Nov 6 and 13. The title: "Category 7: The End of the World." More info from ET Online. A week from today, The Weather Man with Nicholas Cage opens.
Got weekend outdoor plans? Be sure to see our "Eventcast" both tomorrow and Sunday, including a forecast for the Redskins game.
The Forecast
A low pressure area over the Tennessee Valley will produce scattered light rain today. As we're under a bit of a cool wedge and northeast winds, temperatures will not rise much -- only maxing out in the mid 50s.
A period of steadier rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning before a possible break in the action early Saturday afternoon as a warm front passes through the area. By late afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are possible as the cold front approaches. High temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday should range from 0.5-1".
On Sunday, behind the cold front, expect a blustery and cool (but dry) day with a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures should be 55-60.
Wilma Update
At 11pm last night, Wilma remained a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds around 150mph. Here are the impacts AccuWeather expects over the Yucatan peninsula today as the storm flirts with the coastline:... these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as wellAs the storm turns to the northeast Floridian are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. (I don't believe I just resorted to that overused cliche.)
For a mega-list of Wilma resources, please see WxNation's log.
Assessing Wilma Forecasts for Florida
Compare and contrast these three forecast statements:
From the National Hurricane Center, 11pm discussion:
IF WILMA MOVES AS FAR INLAND AS THE MODELS FORECAST...IT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FORECAST ALONG THE REST OF THE TRACK.... IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDAFrom Meteorologist Jeff Masters, Wunder Blog:
Given all these factors, I'd give Wilma a 10% chance of arriving on the Florida west coast as a Category 3 or higher storm, 20% as a Category 2, 40% as a Category 1, and 30% as a tropical storm. On Florida's east coast, knock these value down by half a Category (10 - 15 mph).From Meteorologist Bryon Woods, TheStormTrack.com:
Right now time is on Florida's side. The longer Wilma lingers near Mexico, the weaker she will be when she reaches Florida. As time passes, upper-level conditions over the Gulf are forecast to become increasingly hostile. A Category 2 landfall in Florida is most likely.From a communications standpoint, there is a range in the effectiveness of these statements. The first is the weakest, because wide ranging scenarios are presented, but we are given no idea of the likelihood of any of them. The third is OK -- it presents the most likely scenario, but does not present any less likely scenarios (such as a much weaker storm, which his text suggests is a real possibility). The most effective forecast assessment, therefore, is the second (provided by Jeff Masters) which nicely lays out the possibilities -- all of which are supported by the preceding discussion in his blog.
By the way, I would assign the follow landfall intensity probabilities:
25% Category 3 or higher
50% Category 2
25% Category 1 or lower
I believe Wilma will not move inland over the Yucatan, but just flirt with the coastline. I believe she will gradually weaken after as she encounters dry air and shear on her northeastward trek, but should still be a formidable hurricane at landfall in southwest Florida due to warm waters in the southern Gulf.
Wilma: Beyond Florida
Confidence remains very low regarding what Wilma does after she impacts Florida. There's still some chance (25%) she could merge or phase with upper level low that will be over the Northeast early next week. However, the more likely scenario remains that she goes out to sea.
On screen
CBS is going to air a sequel to the horrendous made-for-TV movie "Category 6" Nov 6 and 13. The title: "Category 7: The End of the World." More info from ET Online. A week from today, The Weather Man with Nicholas Cage opens.
Got weekend outdoor plans? Be sure to see our "Eventcast" both tomorrow and Sunday, including a forecast for the Redskins game.
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