Thursday, January 05, 2006
10-Day Outlook: The Ups and Downs of Winter
Josh Larson @ 8:00 AM
Today's Forecast
After a foggy and chilly start to the day, we'll experience increasing sunshine and mild temperatures by afternoon. Partial clearing and quite mild conditions will characterize the afternoon, with temperatures making it into the low to mid 50s in most places. Clear and cool overnight tonight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s downtown.
Pattern Overview
The atmospheric patterns aloft over the next 10 days are expected to be highly changeable. Couple this with significant model disagreement, and we're looking at a low-confidence forecast for which it will be difficult to accurately predict or pinpoint specific weather features. Unlike some past weeks, this will not be a period where weather patterns lock in and change little from day to day.
Temperatures, especially, are likely to jump around a lot over the period, courtesy of fast-moving frontal systems. Unfortunately for snow-lovers, it does not appear, at this early point that the cold air is likely to cooperate much with potential sources of moisture to produce significant chances for snow through the middle of the month. And when the numbers are averaged, it looks like temperatures over the next 10 days will again end up nearly 5 degrees above normal.
Pictured above: A quick shot of cold air this weekend will be followed by an equally rapid warming by the start of next week.
The next 5 days (Jan 5-9)
Forecast highs/lows: 47/31 (normal = 43/28)
Forecast precip: below normal
After today's mild highs in the 50s, expect partly sunny and cooler weather on Friday. Highs will range from 40-45 depending largely on the amount of cloud cover. A coastal system developing to our southeast may keep much of the eastern half of our area under partly to mostly cloudy skies; partly sunny elsewhere. This coastal low also carries a 10% chance of bringing a surprise snow to our area -- see Snow Lover's Crystal Ball below. Saturday will feature partly sunny and breezy conditions with chilly highs near 40 in most spots; cold overnight lows will range from the low 20s across the cooler suburbs to the upper 20s downtown. We'll see a moderating trend to temperatures on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures rebounding to the mid 40s or above for highs; overnight lows will creep to 30-35. Monday will feature a return to mostly cloudy skies, with a slight chance for a few widely scattered sprinkles or showers; expect much milder highs from 50-55, with overnight lows in the mid 30s.
The following 5 days (Jan 10-14)
Forecast highs/lows: 50/33 (normal = 42/27)
Forecast precip: above normal
A tough forecast for the following five days as significant model disagreement leads to uncertainty regarding the progression of atmospheric features aloft. In addition, it appears possible that a somewhat energized southern jet may increase moisture availability during this period. However, chances for snow remain quite low. I'll call for highs to generally range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s during the period next Tuesday through Saturday, with overnight lows primarily in the 30s. The Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday/Saturday period may bring precipitation to the area, though odds strongly favor liquid versus frozen precipitation at this point.
Next Chance of Snow: Friday, January 6
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: The most die-hard, ardent snow lovers can keep hoping and praying for the models to be off with the placement of the developing coastal low on Friday; if by some fluke/(miracle?) the storm system ends up 50-100 miles further west than currently predicted (remember the "surprise" snowstorm of Jan 24-25,2000?) we could eek out a surprise snow. Otherwise, the most we're likely to see is some cloud cover.
After a foggy and chilly start to the day, we'll experience increasing sunshine and mild temperatures by afternoon. Partial clearing and quite mild conditions will characterize the afternoon, with temperatures making it into the low to mid 50s in most places. Clear and cool overnight tonight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s downtown.
Pattern Overview
The atmospheric patterns aloft over the next 10 days are expected to be highly changeable. Couple this with significant model disagreement, and we're looking at a low-confidence forecast for which it will be difficult to accurately predict or pinpoint specific weather features. Unlike some past weeks, this will not be a period where weather patterns lock in and change little from day to day.Temperatures, especially, are likely to jump around a lot over the period, courtesy of fast-moving frontal systems. Unfortunately for snow-lovers, it does not appear, at this early point that the cold air is likely to cooperate much with potential sources of moisture to produce significant chances for snow through the middle of the month. And when the numbers are averaged, it looks like temperatures over the next 10 days will again end up nearly 5 degrees above normal.
Pictured above: A quick shot of cold air this weekend will be followed by an equally rapid warming by the start of next week.
The next 5 days (Jan 5-9)
Forecast highs/lows: 47/31 (normal = 43/28)
Forecast precip: below normal
After today's mild highs in the 50s, expect partly sunny and cooler weather on Friday. Highs will range from 40-45 depending largely on the amount of cloud cover. A coastal system developing to our southeast may keep much of the eastern half of our area under partly to mostly cloudy skies; partly sunny elsewhere. This coastal low also carries a 10% chance of bringing a surprise snow to our area -- see Snow Lover's Crystal Ball below. Saturday will feature partly sunny and breezy conditions with chilly highs near 40 in most spots; cold overnight lows will range from the low 20s across the cooler suburbs to the upper 20s downtown. We'll see a moderating trend to temperatures on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures rebounding to the mid 40s or above for highs; overnight lows will creep to 30-35. Monday will feature a return to mostly cloudy skies, with a slight chance for a few widely scattered sprinkles or showers; expect much milder highs from 50-55, with overnight lows in the mid 30s.The following 5 days (Jan 10-14)
Forecast highs/lows: 50/33 (normal = 42/27)
Forecast precip: above normal
A tough forecast for the following five days as significant model disagreement leads to uncertainty regarding the progression of atmospheric features aloft. In addition, it appears possible that a somewhat energized southern jet may increase moisture availability during this period. However, chances for snow remain quite low. I'll call for highs to generally range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s during the period next Tuesday through Saturday, with overnight lows primarily in the 30s. The Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday/Saturday period may bring precipitation to the area, though odds strongly favor liquid versus frozen precipitation at this point.Snow Lover's Crystal Ball
Next Chance of Snow: Friday, January 6Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: The most die-hard, ardent snow lovers can keep hoping and praying for the models to be off with the placement of the developing coastal low on Friday; if by some fluke/(miracle?) the storm system ends up 50-100 miles further west than currently predicted (remember the "surprise" snowstorm of Jan 24-25,2000?) we could eek out a surprise snow. Otherwise, the most we're likely to see is some cloud cover.
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