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Let it Thaw, Let it Thaw, Let it Thaw

Matt Ross @ 1:00 AM


Today will be mostly cloudy with occasional sunshine. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees. A warming trend will occur during the end of the week, before we cool down to more seasonable values for the weekend. The National Weather Service covering the DC Metro area indicates a possible pattern change to more persistent cold this weekend, but I am still dubious. I think any real pattern change to snow and cold may have to wait another 2 weeks or so. That being said, I believe that Winter is far from over, and we can expect a period(s) of cold and snow before all is said and done.

January not that warm

While we are sitting at a healthy 5.9 degrees above normal so far for the month of January, we are still well short of last year at this time. Through January 9th of 2005 we were much warmer, or right around twice the anomaly of this January at almost 12 degrees above normal. After a very cold second half of January last winter, we finished the month at only about 1 degree above normal, evidence that the warmth can be erased rather quickly. As of now, it does not appear that January will see such a dramatic flip for the second half of the month. Nevertheless, we may get enough cold in the latter half of the month, especially toward the end, that we will end January at only a few degrees above normal. So far our call in the winter outlook for January to be our warmest month relative to average at 1.5 degrees above normal looks to be on track. However, we will wait for another 3 weeks to do a full evaluation as a lot can happen between now and then.

A Cloudy sky above Tyson's Corner on Monday Courtesy of Photographer Kevin Ambrose

1989-90 Redux?

In the meteorological and weather hobbyist community there has been a lot of comparison of this winter to 1989-90. 1989-90 featured the coldest December ever at National Airport(DCA). Despite the fact that January averages almost 5 degrees cooler than December, January 1990 was an astonishing almost 16 degrees warmer than December. February through April continued the warmth despite a few small late season snow events. Some may remember the early March heat wave that soared temperatures to near 90 degrees for several consecutive days. It is certainly yet to be seen whether this winter will follow suit. I think not, as we should turn cold and snowy again for a period of time. So far I believe the comparisons, while not completely in error, are off the mark. At most so far, 1989-90 is this winter on steroids. Winters where El Nino is not a big factor are often variable as we indicated earlier this Fall. Stay tuned as I believe the "best" is yet to come.

Image Top Right Courtesy of Accuweather

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