Monday, February 20, 2006
An Unsettled Week Ahead...
Jason Samenow @ 12:00 AM
Despite bookends of bitter cold, much of the coming week will be pretty characteristic of late February: cool, but not cold temperatures with occasional bouts of precipitation. Let's get on with the day-by-day...
Expect a cold and cloudy start today, with a few snow flurries or patches of light snow. Especially south. I suppose it may be enough to produce a dusting south of here given the recent cold. Gradual clearing will occur in the afternoon, with highs 35-40 after morning lows of 16-20. Today will remind you a lot of Saturday, but it will start colder and end warmer. Overnight, expect clear and seasonably cold conditions with lows in the upper 20s downtown, and low 20s in the normally colder suburbs.
Gentle west to east flow under weak high pressure will allow some moderation in temperatures. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s under partly sunny skies. Tomorrow night should feature clear skies followed by increasing clouds after midnight, with lows in the low 30s.
Expect cloudy skies in the morning as a southerly wave heads towards to the Carolinas. Precipitation is likely to break out here by noon, although the precipitation type is a bit unclear. Temperatures aloft may be marginally cold enough for snow, but low level temperatures may be more supportive of liquid precipition. I think a rain/snow mix may be the best bet during the daylight hours, possibly changing to snow at night. High temperatures should be in the upper 30s with lows dropping to around freezing overnight. This does not look like a major storm right now but bears watching because some guidance is colder and wetter (and more amplified/energetic) than other guidance. Major storm or minor storm, we're going to be dealing with rain/snow line issues I believe.
As high pressure moves in, temperatures will be pretty seasonable. Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 40s. Overnight Thursday, lows should range from 25-30 under clear skies.
This may well be the mildest day of the week ahead of the next Arctic front. I'll call for highs of 50-55. Overnight, it should begin turning breezy, with lows in the mid 30s.
Expect windy conditions, and cooler temperatures, with highs around 40 as the Arctic front comes through. Some snow flurries are possible in the afternoon or at night. Overnight Saturday, it will remain windy and very cold, with lows dropping into the teens. The cold may resemble last Saturday night's--perhaps just a shade warmer.
Remember yesterday? This could be a carbon copy--or perhaps a smidge warmer. COLD high pressure looks to tighten its grip on the area with high temperatures in the mid 30s.
The average high this week is in the upper 40s, with average lows around 30 in urban areas, mid to high 20s in the suburbs.
Last week about 200 people graded area forecasters' performance for the Feb 11-12 snowstorm, and the average grade was a B. In fact, over 60% of the voters gave out A's and B's, with only 15% of voters giving out D's and F's. In the new poll, we want to know how cold you think it will go (or not go, as the case may be).
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Wednesday, Feb 22
Probability: 30%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: An energetic southern stream system will slip by to our south. How much moisture will it throw at us? And will temperatures will sufficiently cold for snow? I'm leaning towards this not being a significant event, but still need to watch it.
Today
Expect a cold and cloudy start today, with a few snow flurries or patches of light snow. Especially south. I suppose it may be enough to produce a dusting south of here given the recent cold. Gradual clearing will occur in the afternoon, with highs 35-40 after morning lows of 16-20. Today will remind you a lot of Saturday, but it will start colder and end warmer. Overnight, expect clear and seasonably cold conditions with lows in the upper 20s downtown, and low 20s in the normally colder suburbs.Tomorrow
Gentle west to east flow under weak high pressure will allow some moderation in temperatures. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s under partly sunny skies. Tomorrow night should feature clear skies followed by increasing clouds after midnight, with lows in the low 30s.Wednesday
Expect cloudy skies in the morning as a southerly wave heads towards to the Carolinas. Precipitation is likely to break out here by noon, although the precipitation type is a bit unclear. Temperatures aloft may be marginally cold enough for snow, but low level temperatures may be more supportive of liquid precipition. I think a rain/snow mix may be the best bet during the daylight hours, possibly changing to snow at night. High temperatures should be in the upper 30s with lows dropping to around freezing overnight. This does not look like a major storm right now but bears watching because some guidance is colder and wetter (and more amplified/energetic) than other guidance. Major storm or minor storm, we're going to be dealing with rain/snow line issues I believe.Thursday
As high pressure moves in, temperatures will be pretty seasonable. Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 40s. Overnight Thursday, lows should range from 25-30 under clear skies.Friday
This may well be the mildest day of the week ahead of the next Arctic front. I'll call for highs of 50-55. Overnight, it should begin turning breezy, with lows in the mid 30s.Saturday
Expect windy conditions, and cooler temperatures, with highs around 40 as the Arctic front comes through. Some snow flurries are possible in the afternoon or at night. Overnight Saturday, it will remain windy and very cold, with lows dropping into the teens. The cold may resemble last Saturday night's--perhaps just a shade warmer.Sunday
Remember yesterday? This could be a carbon copy--or perhaps a smidge warmer. COLD high pressure looks to tighten its grip on the area with high temperatures in the mid 30s.Climatology
The average high this week is in the upper 40s, with average lows around 30 in urban areas, mid to high 20s in the suburbs.
Weekly Poll Update
Last week about 200 people graded area forecasters' performance for the Feb 11-12 snowstorm, and the average grade was a B. In fact, over 60% of the voters gave out A's and B's, with only 15% of voters giving out D's and F's. In the new poll, we want to know how cold you think it will go (or not go, as the case may be).
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Wednesday, Feb 22
Probability: 30%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: An energetic southern stream system will slip by to our south. How much moisture will it throw at us? And will temperatures will sufficiently cold for snow? I'm leaning towards this not being a significant event, but still need to watch it.
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