Monday, March 13, 2006
The Week Ahead: Springing Back to Winter
Jason Samenow @ 12:35 AM
Blowtorch warmth to start the week will give way to average temperatures by Wednesday and wintry conditions by the end of the week. Your detailed week ahead forecast follows.
After some dense morning fog burns off, break out the Bermuda shorts as a Bermuda high pumps unseasonably warm air into the region. Expect high temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 80s --that's 30 degrees above our average high and not far off from the record high of 87 at Reagan National (which should remain intact).
Pictured: A computer simulation suggests highs will reach 80-85 in our region this afternoon (depicted by red color). Graphic courtesy College of DuPage.
Overnight a strong cold front will move through, along with a line of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the storms looks to be between about 10pm and 2am. The Storm Prediction Center indicates there is a slight risk these storms will be severe-- with the primary threats being strong winds and hail. But given reduced surface heating (and instability) due to the nighttime arrival of the storms (stronger lift to the north, and other factors), we should not experience a widespread severe weather outbreak similar to the one in the Midwest over the weekend (from the same storm). Low temperatures should be in the mid 50s.
Expect gradual clearing, windy and cooler conditions as the cold front moves offshore. Morning temperatures in the upper 50s and lows 60s should remain steady in the afternoon as northwesterly winds gust up to 30mph. Overnight, it will be a bit blustery, with a brisk northwest wind and low temperatures around 30-35.
Northwesterly flow will continue given a low over the Canadian maritimes and high pressure building in from the southwest. Accordingly, it will remain breezy, but there will be plenty of sunshine. Temperatures should be near average, with highs 50-55. Overnight, expect clear skies, with lows near freezing downtown and 25-30 in the suburbs.
After morning sunshine, high clouds should increase in the afternoon as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. High temperatures should be 45-50. Overnight, clouds will lower and thicken with a chance of rain which may mix with or change to snow late, with lows 32-36.
Light rain or snow in the morning should taper off, followed by slow clearing in the afternoon. It should be breezy and quite cool behind the storm, with highs only in the low to mid 40s. Overnight, cold and blustery conditions are possible, with lows 25-30.
As strong high pressure builds in from the northwest and a low spins off the Canadian maritimes, cold air will be driven southward, with temperatures about 10 degrees below average. Despite the mid-March sun, high temperatures both days should only be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: March 16-17
Probability: 25%
Potential Impact:
Commentary:Forecast guidance has been pretty consistent in tracking a low from eastern Colorado Tuesday due eastward toward our region Thursday night. When precipitation first falls, I think temperatures will just support rain. But since the storm is moving through overnight, surface temperatures may cool enough as the precipitation falls for a changeover to snow, particularly north and west of town. Snow accumulation, if any, should be light. More details on this in the coming days.
Today
After some dense morning fog burns off, break out the Bermuda shorts as a Bermuda high pumps unseasonably warm air into the region. Expect high temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 80s --that's 30 degrees above our average high and not far off from the record high of 87 at Reagan National (which should remain intact). Pictured: A computer simulation suggests highs will reach 80-85 in our region this afternoon (depicted by red color). Graphic courtesy College of DuPage.
Overnight a strong cold front will move through, along with a line of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the storms looks to be between about 10pm and 2am. The Storm Prediction Center indicates there is a slight risk these storms will be severe-- with the primary threats being strong winds and hail. But given reduced surface heating (and instability) due to the nighttime arrival of the storms (stronger lift to the north, and other factors), we should not experience a widespread severe weather outbreak similar to the one in the Midwest over the weekend (from the same storm). Low temperatures should be in the mid 50s. Tomorrow
Expect gradual clearing, windy and cooler conditions as the cold front moves offshore. Morning temperatures in the upper 50s and lows 60s should remain steady in the afternoon as northwesterly winds gust up to 30mph. Overnight, it will be a bit blustery, with a brisk northwest wind and low temperatures around 30-35.Wednesday
Northwesterly flow will continue given a low over the Canadian maritimes and high pressure building in from the southwest. Accordingly, it will remain breezy, but there will be plenty of sunshine. Temperatures should be near average, with highs 50-55. Overnight, expect clear skies, with lows near freezing downtown and 25-30 in the suburbs.Thursday
After morning sunshine, high clouds should increase in the afternoon as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. High temperatures should be 45-50. Overnight, clouds will lower and thicken with a chance of rain which may mix with or change to snow late, with lows 32-36.Friday
Light rain or snow in the morning should taper off, followed by slow clearing in the afternoon. It should be breezy and quite cool behind the storm, with highs only in the low to mid 40s. Overnight, cold and blustery conditions are possible, with lows 25-30.The Weekend
As strong high pressure builds in from the northwest and a low spins off the Canadian maritimes, cold air will be driven southward, with temperatures about 10 degrees below average. Despite the mid-March sun, high temperatures both days should only be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s.Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: March 16-17Probability: 25%
Potential Impact:
Commentary:Forecast guidance has been pretty consistent in tracking a low from eastern Colorado Tuesday due eastward toward our region Thursday night. When precipitation first falls, I think temperatures will just support rain. But since the storm is moving through overnight, surface temperatures may cool enough as the precipitation falls for a changeover to snow, particularly north and west of town. Snow accumulation, if any, should be light. More details on this in the coming days.
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