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Muggy Will Give Way to Pleasant

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

Today will be a transition day as we head into several day stretch of a common late summer pattern.


Forecast Confidence: HighA weak cold front that has been slowly approaching from the Ohio Valley will pass through the DC metro area this morning. This may trigger some showers or a thunderstorm during the AM. Skies will gradually clear in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs will be around 87.

Image Above Courtesy of Accuweather

Tonight and Wednesday

Forecast Confidence: HighTonight we will drop to the mid and upper 60s as a seasonably cool summer pattern takes hold. On Wednesday, the 1st of several pleasant days, we will see a mix of high clouds and sun with a high near 85.

See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Our Perception of Temperature

The Washington Post has an interesting article about how we perceive temperature. The article suggests that feeling chilly or warm is much more of a mental issue than a physical one. That while our experience certainly has a physical component, social cues about what the weather is like (i.e. unbearably hot, record cold) help shape and fulfill our expectation of how we think we should feel.

I agree with the tenor of the article. During the long heat wave that peaked in early August, I often found myself anticipating how I should perceive the heat. Once I was able to suppress my expectations, I think I got a better and more accurate gauge on actual conditions. I will continue to dot my forecasts with adjectives about how the weather will be, but feel free to reject my description, and decide for yourself how it feels outside.

Tropical Note

While the tropics remain relatively worry free, there are 2 small systems that merit watching. The 1st is a wave east of the Cape Verde islands that may develop over the next few days as it moves to the northwest. This system will have no sensible short or medium term impact on our weather. The second and more important system is a broad area of low pressure north of the Bahamas. Reconnaissance aircraft may investigate today for signs of low level circulation. The system may slowly organize over the next few days but will likely remain stationary and have little impact on our weather. Stay tuned for an update this week if necessary.

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