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Slight t'storm threat for us; Ernesto eyes Florida coast

Jason Samenow @ 8:10 AM

For us, today will be just like yesterday--muggy air with isolated evening t'storms. For residents of the Gulf Coast, today will be just like a year ago: watching a strengthening hurricane poised to make landfall...


Forecast Confidence: HighMostly cloudy, humid: PM Storms? The same boundary that produced a few storms to our north overnight before slipping southward, will retreat northward again -- meaning we will stay in the warm and muggy air. Expect a mix of clouds and some sun, and a 30% of chance of thunderstorms which could be on the strong side, particularly this evening. High temperatures will be near 90.

The complete week ahead forecast will appear tomorrow.

Tropical Update

Ernesto reached minimal hurricane status (Category 1) this morning, and is intensifying just southwest of the coast of Haiti. Conditions are ripe for him to intensify a category or so before crossing Cuba -- which will weaken the storm (due to the storms interaction with Cuba's rugged terrain). After that, Ernesto may re-intensify a bit in the Gulf of Mexico prior to making landfall along the Gulf Coast. The most recent track guidance puts Florida's Gulf coast under the gun -- with Tampa a possible target.

It's not out of the question that Ernesto affects the East Coast in the long range -- 4 to 5 days from now. We'll keep you posted on the latest developments. For additional commentary on Ernesto, you may enjoy Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog updates.

In other tropical news, Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield announced his retirement, effective January, on Friday.

Morning Reading: In Today's Washington Post

Also, tune in to WeatherTalkRadio (WCBM 680 at 3pm or online) today for the latest on Ernesto.

(Andrew Freedman's Sunday Undercast has the week off)

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