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Rainy Start to the Week, but Finish Looks Good

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

A broad swath of rain will affect the area today. Then we are mostly dry and seasonable heading into the weekend.

Today

Steady Rain.
Forecast Confidence: High Under cloudy skies, we will see steady rain throughout the day. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. Totals will range from 1/2" in the southern and eastern suburbs to over an inch to the north and west. High temperatures will be around 70 degrees. The rain will taper off late this afternoon to lighter rain and showers.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradual Clearing.
Forecast Confidence: High Tonight will have occasional light rain and showers becoming less frequent as we head toward dawn. Early AM temps will be around 60 degrees. Partly Cloudy and a 30% chance of lingering showers tomorrow with highs around 78.


Peek at Thursday Through the Weekend

Mostly Tranquil.
Forecast Confidence: High Thursday and Friday will see highs of 80-84 under Partly Cloudy skies with a slight chance of some showers on Friday. Right now the weekend looks partly cloudy, but dry, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.


Brief Summer Recap and Grading

This summer will best be remembered for 2 things. The torrential rain at the end of June and the heat wave of early August. Some of the parts in between were rather boring and repetitive. Hazy, Hot and Humid. August finished well above normal, but the summer overall was only 14th warmest in the last 30 despite our 1st 100 degree day in 4 years. A pretty typical DC summer outside of the late June deluge which was anything but typical.

In our official 2006 Summer Outlook, we called for a generally "average" DC summer. Although not one of our hottest summers, it still finished 1.5 degrees above normal. All 3 months finished at or above normal, and August finished over 3 degrees above normal with a memorable heat wave. While we predicted some things decently we failed to capture the overall feel of the summer.

We called for the Plains and Great Lakes to have the warmest temp anomalies this summer and that was fairly accurate, if a bit too far east, as warmest temps have been in the Plains. Also we mentioned possible tropical action in August. That was about all we got right. We had 34 days at 90 or above in June, July and August, slightly above our normal 32. We called for 25-30(not too bad). We called for 3-5 days of 95 or higher. We had 7. We had June as our hottest month and it was our coolest month. Vice versa with August. Our call of a normal July wasn't bad(+1.2), but hardly enough to offset the other 2 months. The only real mitigating factor was that we went for a normal summer as opposed to a cool one. Overall Grade: D+/C-. I think we will do better this winter. Look for that outlook in October.


Tropical Depression 6

TD6 is moving slowly to the west and northwest. It will likely become Tropical Storm Florence tomorrow and has the potential to be a hurricane toward the end of the week. Currently it is very disorganized and there are some indications that it will not strengthen as easily as forecast, and even if it does, it may move northeast. See Jason's post yesterday for more details. If Florence was to affect the East Coast, it wouldn't be until late next week. Updates will be issued as warranted.

Pictured At Top Right: Near the Intersection of 16th and Columbia this past weekend courtesy of CapitalWeather.com Photographer, Ian Livingston.

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