Tuesday, January 09, 2007
A Brief Touch of Winter
Rain or wet snowflakes possible today
Matt Ross @ 4:00 PM
Finally, seasonable conditions have arrived. Along with today's cooler air, an area of scattered rain showers is moving through the metro area this afternoon. Some snowflakes may mix in with the rain from time to time, but no accumulation is expected. Precipitation should be exiting the area by the 6-7pm time frame.
This Afternoon
Mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers possible. As a clipper system comes through, there is a 50% chance of light rain or snow through early evening. Little or no snow accumulation is expected given temperatures near the surface that are well above freezing. Afternoon highs will be seasonable in the low 40s.
Tonight and Tomorrow
Sunny, Cold. Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold. Overnight lows will dip to the mid 20s in the burbs and around 30 in town. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold with afternoon highs around 40 degrees.
It's back to above normal temperatures for Thursday through the weekend, before colder air returns by early next week, likely persisting for at least a week and probably longer. See Jason's forecast for the detailed forecast through the weekend.
Extreme Warmth to Extreme Cold?
Our local National Weather Service office out of Sterling, Va issued a Public Information Statement today as follows:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007
...IT HAS BEEN VERY WARM SINCE THANKSGIVING IF YOU DID NOT NOTICE...
THE FIRST PART OF THE WINTER OF 2006 TO 2007 HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT
WINTER. IN THE PERIOD SINCE THANKSGIVING...NOVEMBER 23RD TO JANUARY
7TH... WASHINGTON HAS BEEN THE WARMEST EVER FOR THAT PERIOD IN ITS
135 YEAR RECORD. BALTIMORE IS UP TO 3RD WARMEST FOR THAT TIME IN ITS
135 YEAR RECORD.
THE TOP 3 FOR WASHINGTON...
2006-07 46.5 DEGREE AVERAGE
2001-02 45.8 DEGREE AVERAGE
1931-32 45.3 DEGREE AVERAGE
THE TOP 3 FOR BALTIMORE...
1931-32 46.2 DEGREE AVERAGE
1889-90 45.6 DEGREE AVERAGE
2006-07 44.5 DEGREE AVERAGE
The above, while impressive, certainly is not surprising. By almost any measure, the above-mentioned period has been warm. It is even more significant given the fact that there was a 7 day period of below average temperatures in early December that averaged almost 7 degrees below normal. What would be even more impressive is a reversal of this 6-7 week period of warmth with a similar 6 week period of cold.
While I do not think the that the warm anomalies of the last 6 weeks can be erased, I do believe that from mid January through February and perhaps into March, we are in for a period where the cold overwhelms the warmth. Accuweather meteorologist and occasional hypester, Joe Bastardi, believes the January 15th - February 15th period has the potential to be one of the coldest in the last 50 years. While I don't believe that will be the case, I do believe that the "rubber band" will snap in the other direction and we will see at least a 2-3 week period of cold, that could possibly last longer, beginning around the 15th.
I also expect that we will see wintry weather during this period and that the Snow Lovers Crystal Ball will make an appearance very soon. More than 90% of winters in DC have seen over 5" of snow and this winter will be no exception. The 1st half of winter belonged to the large number of DC snow haters, but I think the 2nd half belongs to the snow and cold lovers. See you next week when the pattern change will likely be commencing.
This Afternoon
Mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers possible. As a clipper system comes through, there is a 50% chance of light rain or snow through early evening. Little or no snow accumulation is expected given temperatures near the surface that are well above freezing. Afternoon highs will be seasonable in the low 40s.Tonight and Tomorrow
Sunny, Cold. Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold. Overnight lows will dip to the mid 20s in the burbs and around 30 in town. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold with afternoon highs around 40 degrees.It's back to above normal temperatures for Thursday through the weekend, before colder air returns by early next week, likely persisting for at least a week and probably longer. See Jason's forecast for the detailed forecast through the weekend.
Extreme Warmth to Extreme Cold?
Our local National Weather Service office out of Sterling, Va issued a Public Information Statement today as follows:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007
...IT HAS BEEN VERY WARM SINCE THANKSGIVING IF YOU DID NOT NOTICE...
THE FIRST PART OF THE WINTER OF 2006 TO 2007 HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT
WINTER. IN THE PERIOD SINCE THANKSGIVING...NOVEMBER 23RD TO JANUARY
7TH... WASHINGTON HAS BEEN THE WARMEST EVER FOR THAT PERIOD IN ITS
135 YEAR RECORD. BALTIMORE IS UP TO 3RD WARMEST FOR THAT TIME IN ITS
135 YEAR RECORD.
THE TOP 3 FOR WASHINGTON...
2006-07 46.5 DEGREE AVERAGE
2001-02 45.8 DEGREE AVERAGE
1931-32 45.3 DEGREE AVERAGE
THE TOP 3 FOR BALTIMORE...
1931-32 46.2 DEGREE AVERAGE
1889-90 45.6 DEGREE AVERAGE
2006-07 44.5 DEGREE AVERAGE
The above, while impressive, certainly is not surprising. By almost any measure, the above-mentioned period has been warm. It is even more significant given the fact that there was a 7 day period of below average temperatures in early December that averaged almost 7 degrees below normal. What would be even more impressive is a reversal of this 6-7 week period of warmth with a similar 6 week period of cold.
While I do not think the that the warm anomalies of the last 6 weeks can be erased, I do believe that from mid January through February and perhaps into March, we are in for a period where the cold overwhelms the warmth. Accuweather meteorologist and occasional hypester, Joe Bastardi, believes the January 15th - February 15th period has the potential to be one of the coldest in the last 50 years. While I don't believe that will be the case, I do believe that the "rubber band" will snap in the other direction and we will see at least a 2-3 week period of cold, that could possibly last longer, beginning around the 15th.
I also expect that we will see wintry weather during this period and that the Snow Lovers Crystal Ball will make an appearance very soon. More than 90% of winters in DC have seen over 5" of snow and this winter will be no exception. The 1st half of winter belonged to the large number of DC snow haters, but I think the 2nd half belongs to the snow and cold lovers. See you next week when the pattern change will likely be commencing.
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