Sunday, January 21, 2007
Season's First Snowfall Winding Down
Winter Weather Advisory in Effect
Jason Samenow @ 11:15 PM
After a long wait, this winter's first shot of accumulating snow has come and mostly gone with hazardous travel conditions throughout the area.
11pm update: A wintry mix of light sleet, freezing rain and a bit of snow continues in DC and close-in suburbs, especially south and east. This could continue for several more hours. The accumulating snow is over -- with accumulations in the 1-2" range. Road conditions are hazardous in many parts of the region. Use extreme caution traveling tonight or stay in.
WashingtonPost.com: Snow Arrives in Full Force
Where will the heaviest snow fall? It won't be that heavy, but most likely in the western part of central Virginia -- where 2 or 4 inches is possible, maybe a bit more in the mountains.
When will the snow start? Light snow and flurries could begin by mid morning in central VA, early afternoon in the DC area and late afternoon around Baltimore. See detailed timeline above.
Where is the precipitation now? Click here for the latest radar loop. Note that parts of the leading edge of the precipitation may be virga -- precipitation that's in the air but not yet reaching the ground.
Will the snow stick? Mostly -- thanks to generally subfreezing temperatures in the 18 hours prior to the storm. As usual, accumulation will occur first on grassy and shaded areas.
When will travel be most difficult? Beginning this afternoon and continuing this evening -- especially during periods moderate snow. Particularly be careful on untreated and lightly traveled roads, ramps and bridges. Freezing drizzle overnight will make for a tricky rush hour Monday morning -- with school delays likely. The first storm of the season frequently can cause more problems since there is no base of salt or sand on the roads.
Where is ice most likely to mix in with the snow? Favored areas for sleet (early evening) and freezing drizzle (overnight) are the District and points south.
When will conditions improve? During the daylight hours on Monday when temperatures rise above freezing.
Could it fizzle out? Yes -- we're dealing with a weakening storm -- so it's not out of the question there could be breaks/lulls in the precip which result in little accumulation in spots (30% chance). This storm is moving in from the west, which is not a favorable direction for heavy snow in this area. Finally, mixed precipitation could hold down accumulations.
Could the storm bring more snow than expected? Best case scenario for snow lovers in the area would be a solid two to four inches if some moderate areas of snow hold together (30% chance).
What are other forecasters saying? Nearly all forecasters in the area are calling for around 1" although the National Weather Service increased its forecast to 1-2".
What's your bottom line? For the immediate DC area, a 40% chance of 1-3", 30% chance of less than 1", 30% chance of more than 3".
Pictured: Snow beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces between 2:30-3pm in NW Washington, DC (Mt. Pleasant). By CapitalWeather.com photographer Ian Livingston.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow (after today):
Wednesday, Jan 24 - Friday, Jan 26
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Models are going back and forth on the evolution of a storm that could take shape Wednesday into Thursday. The potential is there for a significant East Coast winter storm, but a lot of pieces will need to come together for heavy snow in DC and the probability remains somewhat low. It's too early to discuss details, but we'll provide more information about possible scenarios in the coming days.
11pm update: A wintry mix of light sleet, freezing rain and a bit of snow continues in DC and close-in suburbs, especially south and east. This could continue for several more hours. The accumulating snow is over -- with accumulations in the 1-2" range. Road conditions are hazardous in many parts of the region. Use extreme caution traveling tonight or stay in.
WashingtonPost.com: Snow Arrives in Full Force
Report and Map Snow Totals Where You Live Here.
Flickr users -- feel free to post your photos and tag them "capitalwxjan2107". Some images have already been posted and are available here.
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Travelcast: Schoolcast (Mon.): | |
Frequently asked Questions
Where will the heaviest snow fall? It won't be that heavy, but most likely in the western part of central Virginia -- where 2 or 4 inches is possible, maybe a bit more in the mountains.When will the snow start? Light snow and flurries could begin by mid morning in central VA, early afternoon in the DC area and late afternoon around Baltimore. See detailed timeline above.
Where is the precipitation now? Click here for the latest radar loop. Note that parts of the leading edge of the precipitation may be virga -- precipitation that's in the air but not yet reaching the ground.
Will the snow stick? Mostly -- thanks to generally subfreezing temperatures in the 18 hours prior to the storm. As usual, accumulation will occur first on grassy and shaded areas.
When will travel be most difficult? Beginning this afternoon and continuing this evening -- especially during periods moderate snow. Particularly be careful on untreated and lightly traveled roads, ramps and bridges. Freezing drizzle overnight will make for a tricky rush hour Monday morning -- with school delays likely. The first storm of the season frequently can cause more problems since there is no base of salt or sand on the roads.
Where is ice most likely to mix in with the snow? Favored areas for sleet (early evening) and freezing drizzle (overnight) are the District and points south.
When will conditions improve? During the daylight hours on Monday when temperatures rise above freezing.
Could it fizzle out? Yes -- we're dealing with a weakening storm -- so it's not out of the question there could be breaks/lulls in the precip which result in little accumulation in spots (30% chance). This storm is moving in from the west, which is not a favorable direction for heavy snow in this area. Finally, mixed precipitation could hold down accumulations.
Could the storm bring more snow than expected? Best case scenario for snow lovers in the area would be a solid two to four inches if some moderate areas of snow hold together (30% chance).
What are other forecasters saying? Nearly all forecasters in the area are calling for around 1" although the National Weather Service increased its forecast to 1-2".
What's your bottom line? For the immediate DC area, a 40% chance of 1-3", 30% chance of less than 1", 30% chance of more than 3".
Pictured: Snow beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces between 2:30-3pm in NW Washington, DC (Mt. Pleasant). By CapitalWeather.com photographer Ian Livingston.
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow (after today):
Wednesday, Jan 24 - Friday, Jan 26
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Models are going back and forth on the evolution of a storm that could take shape Wednesday into Thursday. The potential is there for a significant East Coast winter storm, but a lot of pieces will need to come together for heavy snow in DC and the probability remains somewhat low. It's too early to discuss details, but we'll provide more information about possible scenarios in the coming days.
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