Monday, March 05, 2007
The Week Ahead: One more Wintry Blast?
Jason Samenow @ 9:40 AM
*Wind Advisory in Effect from 3pm to 11pm today*
Winter may produce its last cold snap early this week as well as the chance of a few more snowflakes. After that, milder weather will begin to assert itself.
Quite windy, seasonably cool. Expect a mostly sunny and brisk day with a cold front sweeping through the area by the early evening. Although high temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, factor in the strong 15-25mph westerly winds (with gusts as high as 40mph) and it won't feel much different. High temperatures should range from 46 to 51. Overnight, it will be clear, windy and very cold with lows 19-23 (suburbs-city).
Coldest Day: Tuesday, High 36.
Warmest Day: Saturday, High 53.
Dry Days: Mon-Tuesday, Thurs-Friday.
Precipitation Chances: Wednesday (snow/rain), and Saturday/Sunday(rain)
The Week's Wild Cards: How much precipitation will Wednesday's clipper produce? Will it be cold enough to snow?
Climatological Average High/Low: 52-54/34-36
Partly sunny -- unseasonably cold. As a cold airmass builds in from the northwest, temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees below average. Expect partly sunny skies along with a bit of a breeze with highs 34-38 . Overnight, clouds will likely increase a bit late with lows 20-25 (suburbs-city)
Chance of snow or rain. Clouds will increase during the morning, with the possibility of snow or rain into the afternoon as a strong clipper passes just to our north (see the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball at the bottom of this post for more information). High temperatures should range from 35-40. Overnight, any precipitation will shutoff with skies rapidly clearing in the clipper's wake, with lows 23-29 (suburbs-city).
Mostly sunny, cool. Cold high pressure will move in behind Wednesday's clipper. High temperatures will likely range from the low to mid 40s. Overnight, skies should be mostly clear, with lows 24-29 (suburbs-city).
Mostly sunny, not as cold. The cold air will likely lose some of its punch by Friday as high pressure moves offshore. Look for mostly sunny skies, with perhaps an increase in high clouds late, with high temperatures from 47-52. Overnight, there may be a gradual increase in clouds, with lows 35-40 (suburbs-city)
Mostly cloudy and unsettled. A weak cold front is likely to gradually drift towards the area. Along and ahead of it, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. By Sunday, some lingering showers are possible depending on the front's progress. Both days, highs should be relatively mild, in the low to mid 50s.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Wednesday
Probability: 25%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A "clipper" system is likely to affect the region on Wednesday, perhaps producing a period of snow. As of now, the best chance of accumulating snow (as usual) is to the north and west as the clipper looks to track just to our north. However, just a slight jog south would significantly increase our snow chances.
To get accumulating snow during March, you need the right combination of the four T's: "Track, Temperature, Timing and inTensity." As of right now, the track isn't great for snow (as mentioned), but there's still time for it to change a bit. Temperatures are linked to the track because a more southerly track would result in colder temperatures more conducive to snow. Given the current track scenarios, temperatures are marginal and rain enters the equation in DC and points south in some of them. Timing matters from the standpoint of whether the snow will stick. If any snow that falls occurs overnight, accumulation becomes more likely whereas it's much more difficult for snow to accumulate during the day in March due to the high sun angle. The good news for snow lovers is that at least one model suggests that snow could start before dawn Wednesday perhaps promoting some light accumulation prior to the middle of the day. Finally, snow accumulation in March depends on intensity -- particularly during daylight hours. Intense snowfall rates can make up for mild ground temperatures or a high sun angle. The good news (for snow lovers) is that this clipper is forecast to intensify and there may be a narrow band of more significant snow. The bad news is that said band of significant snow looks to be most likely over southern Pennsylvania. But we'll keep an eye on it :)
Winter may produce its last cold snap early this week as well as the chance of a few more snowflakes. After that, milder weather will begin to assert itself.
Today
Quite windy, seasonably cool. Expect a mostly sunny and brisk day with a cold front sweeping through the area by the early evening. Although high temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, factor in the strong 15-25mph westerly winds (with gusts as high as 40mph) and it won't feel much different. High temperatures should range from 46 to 51. Overnight, it will be clear, windy and very cold with lows 19-23 (suburbs-city).The Upcoming Week at a Glance
Coldest Day: Tuesday, High 36.
Warmest Day: Saturday, High 53.
Dry Days: Mon-Tuesday, Thurs-Friday.
Precipitation Chances: Wednesday (snow/rain), and Saturday/Sunday(rain)
The Week's Wild Cards: How much precipitation will Wednesday's clipper produce? Will it be cold enough to snow?
Climatological Average High/Low: 52-54/34-36
Partly sunny -- unseasonably cold. As a cold airmass builds in from the northwest, temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees below average. Expect partly sunny skies along with a bit of a breeze with highs 34-38 . Overnight, clouds will likely increase a bit late with lows 20-25 (suburbs-city) Chance of snow or rain. Clouds will increase during the morning, with the possibility of snow or rain into the afternoon as a strong clipper passes just to our north (see the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball at the bottom of this post for more information). High temperatures should range from 35-40. Overnight, any precipitation will shutoff with skies rapidly clearing in the clipper's wake, with lows 23-29 (suburbs-city). Mostly sunny, cool. Cold high pressure will move in behind Wednesday's clipper. High temperatures will likely range from the low to mid 40s. Overnight, skies should be mostly clear, with lows 24-29 (suburbs-city).Friday
Mostly sunny, not as cold. The cold air will likely lose some of its punch by Friday as high pressure moves offshore. Look for mostly sunny skies, with perhaps an increase in high clouds late, with high temperatures from 47-52. Overnight, there may be a gradual increase in clouds, with lows 35-40 (suburbs-city)The weekend
Mostly cloudy and unsettled. A weak cold front is likely to gradually drift towards the area. Along and ahead of it, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. By Sunday, some lingering showers are possible depending on the front's progress. Both days, highs should be relatively mild, in the low to mid 50s.Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Wednesday
Probability: 25%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A "clipper" system is likely to affect the region on Wednesday, perhaps producing a period of snow. As of now, the best chance of accumulating snow (as usual) is to the north and west as the clipper looks to track just to our north. However, just a slight jog south would significantly increase our snow chances.
To get accumulating snow during March, you need the right combination of the four T's: "Track, Temperature, Timing and inTensity." As of right now, the track isn't great for snow (as mentioned), but there's still time for it to change a bit. Temperatures are linked to the track because a more southerly track would result in colder temperatures more conducive to snow. Given the current track scenarios, temperatures are marginal and rain enters the equation in DC and points south in some of them. Timing matters from the standpoint of whether the snow will stick. If any snow that falls occurs overnight, accumulation becomes more likely whereas it's much more difficult for snow to accumulate during the day in March due to the high sun angle. The good news for snow lovers is that at least one model suggests that snow could start before dawn Wednesday perhaps promoting some light accumulation prior to the middle of the day. Finally, snow accumulation in March depends on intensity -- particularly during daylight hours. Intense snowfall rates can make up for mild ground temperatures or a high sun angle. The good news (for snow lovers) is that this clipper is forecast to intensify and there may be a narrow band of more significant snow. The bad news is that said band of significant snow looks to be most likely over southern Pennsylvania. But we'll keep an eye on it :)
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