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The Week Ahead: Summer Weather Deja Vu
Like last week, mugginess to build then break

Jason Samenow @ 12:00 AM

Once in a while, the weather gives a repeat performance. The evolution of the weather this week will be very similar to last week. After a comfortable beginning, the heat and humidity will increase towards the middle part of the week before a cold front brings us back near to where we started by the weekend.


Nice Day StampBeautiful. It's too bad most of us have to return to work because the weather will be about as good as it gets for early July in Washington. Skies will be mostly sunny with unseasonably low humidity (dewpoints in the 40s). High temperatures will range from 79-83 with a refreshing northerly wind at around 10mph. Overnight, it will be clear and pleasantly cool with lows 53-59 (suburbs-city).

The Upcoming Week at a Glance

Warmest Day: Wednesday, High 90.
Coolest Day: Today, High 81.
Rain Chances: Wednesday PM (35%), Thursday PM (50%), Friday (20%)
Dry Days: Today and tomorrow, and next weekend.
The Week's Wild Cards: Will afternoon and evening thunderstorms interfere with 4th of July activities? Will the cold front that passes through the region Thursday night stall and influence our weather through the weekend?
Climatological Average High/Low: 88/69


Forecast Confidence: HighMostly sunny, warm. High pressure should be centered over the Mid-Atlantic promoting plenty of sunshine, light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels should remain comfortable but a bit higher than the two days prior. Overnight, look for clear skies and lows 60-65 (suburbs-city).

Independence Day

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighIncreasing humidity, chance of late day storms. As the flow becomes southerly, humidity levels will creep upwards and so will temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90. With the added juice in the atmosphere, a few thunderstorms could form. We'll keep you posted about the late day thunderstorm risk as the 4th draws nearer. Overnight, after any isolated storms diminish, it should be partly cloudy and muggy, with lows 65-70 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence:Medium-HighHumid, late day t'storm risk. A cold front will likely approach the area, triggering late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. It's too early to be confident about the prospect of severe weather, but Thursday has this week's highest probability of strong or severe storms (of course, this was the case last week, and storms did not materialize). The Storm Prediction Center indicates at least a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms for our area on Thursday. Before any storms affect the area, conditions will be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight, showers and storms could continue as the front slowly passes through the region with lows around 70.


Forecast Confidence: MediumGradual clearing. Thursday night's cold front should pass to the east allowing for slow clearing Friday. However, there's some chance it could be slow to clear the region or won't clear the region at all -- so I'll call for a 20% chance of lingering showers and t'storms. High temperatures will likely be in the mid 80s. Overnight, skies should be partly cloudy with lows in the mid to upper 60s (suburbs-city).

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: mediumComfortably warm, not as humid. Just like this past weekend, cooler and less humid air should seep into the region. But, next weekend's airmass won't be as cool or as dry as what we're now experiencing. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. If Thursday's front doesn't completely clear the region on Friday and lingers (slight chance), it will be more cloudy and more humid than currently forecast (and some showers could pop up as well).

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