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Unusually Warm for the Next 10 Days
Moderate to Severe Drought Persists

Josh Larson @ 8:30 AM

Conditions today and tomorrow will be very similar to what we see over the next week to ten days, as an abnormally warm pattern keeps highs in the 90s during this time period. Unfortunately, rain chances over the coming week will be scarce, meaning that moderate to severe drought conditions throughout our area will persist.


Forecast Confidence: MediumSunny & Hot. Abundant sunshine today will allow for sweltering high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with moderate humidity levels. Mostly clear and sultry tonight with lows in the mid 70s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumMuch the same, slight chance of isolated storm. Expect continued mostly sunny skies on Friday along with uncomfortably warm high temperatures once again in the mid to upper 90s in most spots. There is a slight chance -- about 20-30% -- of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening as a cold front passes to our north. Keep in mind that means about a 70-80% chance of no rain. Mostly clear and balmy again Friday night with lows near 75.

The Weekend

Confidence: High-Very HighContinued hot & hazy. Expect a continuation of the hot weather on Saturday. Once again, highs will be in the mid 90s under mostly sunny conditions and moderate humidity levels. Sunday looks a tick "cooler," with highs in the low 90s under continued mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows both nights will not drop below the low to mid 70s.

Pattern Overview

As is often typical for August weather in the DC metro area, we appear to be entering a fairly extended period (7-10+ days) of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation; despite the lack of precipitation, humidity levels will be pretty close to normal uncomfortable-August levels in DC -- with dewpoints generally ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Medium range models suggest that the earliest we can realistically expect a cold front to bring a decent chance for precipitation, as well as slightly lower temperatures, may be Thursday or Friday of next week. Until then, we'll have to keep both the A/C and outdoor sprinklers on high. Which is no fun for anyone's wallet.

Above: the CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook suggests a high probability of above normal temperatures for our region next week.

A Look at the Tropics

After what has been a fairly quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season -- though the tropics don't typically get active until August -- it looks like conditions are starting to become more favorable for tropical development. First, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above normal over much of the area where storms typically develop. In addition, there are some existing tropical waves at the moment. I'd say that there is a 30-40% chance that a named storm may develop over the next week.

Above: current tropical activity over the Atlantic; courtesy Accuweather.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 95/75 (normal = 88/70)
Forecast precip: Below-normal

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighExpect mostly sunny and very warm temperatures on Monday and Tuesday with humidity levels increasing to uncomfortable levels; heat indices may approach 100 degrees both days. Partly cloudy both nights with oppressive overnight lows not dropping below the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday looks to feature a blend of clouds and sun with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the second half of the day; expect highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. From this far vantage point, Thursday and Friday will probably feature a continued blend of clouds and sun with a 50/50 chance of thunderstorms each day and highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

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