After a very cool start to this morning with widespread frost, we'll see a mid-week moderation toward seasonable and pleasant weather. As Steve alluded to yesterday
, despite the recent cooling, this October is a lock to be the warmest on record in DC. Not even close, October 2007 will finish around 8 degrees above normal, or about 2 degrees warmer than 2nd place (1984).
Today and TonightAM Frost, PM Warmth.
After our coldest morning so far this Fall with lows in the 30s, the sun will warm us up quickly. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 60s under brilliant sunshine. Overnight temperatures will plummet, but not as cold as the last two nights. Look for overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Image above depicts record warmth in the mid-Atlantic and northeast for October. Courtesy of MDA.
Wednesday will be sunny and warm. After a chilly start, expect afternoon temperatures to climb into the low 70s. This will likely make our 25th 70 degree day of the month versus an average of 11-12. Trick or Treat weather will be ideal. Temperatures, under clear skies, will fall through the 60s during the evening into the mid to upper 50s as we head toward midnight. Refer to Dan's forecast
for the rest of the week and weekend.
Evident Fall color near the Naval Observatory on Monday, courtesy of CapitalWeather.com photographer, Ian Livingston.
As we head toward winter, a moderate La Nina
currently in place is the main player. La Nina's typically mean a cold start and finish to winter with a warm middle. However, weaker La Nina episodes sometimes lead to cold and snowy winters throughout, while stronger ones can be warm with little snow. Right now the current La Nina episode looks like it will be of moderate strength with some weakening expected as we head into 2008. Based on this and other factors, I believe that we will see a cold December into early January. Latter January into February will be above normal, but colder than normal temperatures will return in late February into mid March. Overall temperatures will lean toward above normal and snow should be at or just below normal. Look for much more detail and explanation in our annual winter outlook coming out soon.
Tropical Storm NoelNoel
, a 50 mph tropical storm at press time, is going to recurve innocuously into the Atlantic Ocean away from the southeast coast. Our local National Weather Service office in Sterling had this to say regarding Noel:TROPICAL STORM NOEL
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN TIP OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE HARMLESSLY
OUT TO SEA. HISTORICAL HURRICANE DATABASE SHOWS THAT THE LATEST THAT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE IMPACTED THE LWX AREA IS NOV 1ST. LAST ONE
WAS IN 1899. SO NOVEMBER TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS AREA ARE
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY WITH A RECURRENCE PERIOD OF ONE IN A 100 YEARS OR