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Mild Today, Rainy Tomorrow ... Then What?
Watching the weekend winter storm potential

Dan Stillman @ 10:15 AM

If our cool December has had you cooped up indoors (temperatures are running about 2.5 degrees below average for the month thus far), then today might be a good day to step outside, as temperatures aim for 60 and beyond with just a small chance of a passing shower. Cooler air moves in for tomorrow, and a potentially significant winter storm could impact the area this weekend.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMild, mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Despite mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should reach highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.(They won't have too far to climb from morning lows in the upper 40s to near 50 -- about 20-25 degrees above the average low.) A few showers are possible (30% chance) as the front that has been stalled to our north sinks southward. Tonight, a slight chance of a shower as cooler air moves in. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: HighCloudy, rain developing. Low pressure approaching from the southwest threatens to bring a steady, soaking rain to the area, starting as early as during the morning commute and lasting into the late afternoon or early evening. Highs will be much lower than the previous day, only making it to the low 40s. Overnight, skies clear as lows drop to the low-to-mid 30s.


Forecast Confidence: HighPartly sunny, not as cool. A quiet weather day should yield a typical (though slightly warmer than average) winter feel, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 50s. Overnight, partly cloudy and quite cool with lows near 30.

A Look Ahead

  • A large storm system approaching from the southwest could spread precipitation over the area by the middle or latter part of Saturday, with highs only in the 30s, and a coastal low could keep precipitation going into early Sunday. Will the precipitation be in the form of snow, rain, ice, or all of the above? See below for more details.
  • Once the storm exits early Sunday, windy and cold conditions are likely through Monday, with high temperatures stuck in the 30s.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Dec. 15 - Sunday Dec. 16.
Probability: 40%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A potent storm system is likely to impact our area midday Saturday into early Sunday. The models have been fairly consistent in showing a strong storm approaching from the southwest with lots of moisture. But the track of the storm, and where exactly a secondary coastal low may develop, is still in doubt. One possible scenario is for precipitation to begin as snow, change over to a wintry mix (including rain), and then back to snow before ending. However, other scenarios -- ranging from more snow, to more ice, to more rain -- can't be ruled out. Bottom line: There's good potential for this to be a significant winter storm, and at least some wintry precipitation is probable, but overall forecast confidence is low as of now.

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