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Yesterday's record rains and today's winds

Jason Samenow @ 1:10 AM


Record rains (for the date) fell across the region yesterday-- with amounts generally around 2 inches (I don't have the exact totals, and it's still raining as I write this). Combine the rain with the cool temperatures and wind, and it was just downright nasty outside.

Later today, as high pressure builds in, the sun will come out but temperatures will rise only a little -- with highs 44-48. If you couple these temperatures with strong northerly winds at 15-25 mph, it will feel like the 30s this afternoon. Bundle up and hold onto your hat.

Sunday is still looking OK -- after a cold start (lows 28-32), expect sunny skies, and highs 48-52.

Pictured: Heavy rain and breezy conditions prevailed all day. This photo was taken in Greenbelt, MD. Photo by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.

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Weekend outlook

Jason Samenow @ 1:52 AM

The storm that is giving us rain today will finally pull away tonight -- leaving low clouds in its wake through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the sun should break out but it will be breezy and cool -- with highs in the upper 40s. Sunday should be the better of the two days. After a frosty start, it will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s.

Outdoor events are beginning to be few and far between this time of year. Once the snow starts arriving, we'll give you some ski forecasts in the weekend outlook. In the meantime, there are still football games to forecast for. And we've got two good ones this weekend:

On Saturday, Virginia faces the Miami Hurricanes at 3:30pm in Charlottesville. It will be brisk with temperatures falling through the 40s during the game, with a north wind at about 10-15 mph, subsiding somewhat in the second half. Score prediction: UVA 27, Miami 13

On Sunday, the Redskins take on the Cincinatti Bengals at 4pm at FedEx field. Winds should be calm, but temperatures will be chilly -- starting off at about 47 at kickoff and falling to near 40 by the game's conclusion. Score prediction: Redskins 17, Bengals 9.

Season prediction record: 17-5

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Rain on the horizon...

Jason Samenow @ 1:26 AM

An area of low pressure will move through the Tennessee Valley today and will pass just to our south before moving northeastward out to sea, paralleling the coast of New England. The low will tap plenty of low level moisture, and drop rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches by late tonight, when the rain should taper off. With northeast winds today, temperatures will be cool -- with steady temperatures in the high 40s.



The photo above, by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose, shows yesterday's beautiful sunset near Annapolis, Md. It perfectly captures the classic sky conditions preceding an impending storm-- high cirrus overhead, with the cloud deck lowering and thickening on the horizon...

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Veteran's Day Update

Jason Samenow @ 10:29 AM

Happy Veteran's Day. Weather looks good today. While it will be on the cloudy side, expect mild temps this afternoon--with the high nearing 60. Tomorrow, expect a chilly rain, as a frontal wave moves through. The high will be around 50, with about an inch of rain falling between late tonight and tomorrow evening.

Today is the 17-year anniversary of the Veteran's Day snowstorm (1987). This record setting storm helped cement my interest in meteorology. The National Weather Service was calling for light snow changing to rain, with up to one inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces. Of course, the snow never changed to rain and nearly a foot of snow fell at National Airport (although only 3" fell at Dulles--one of those rare storms where less snow fell in the western suburbs). I was 11 at the time and I vividly remember the thunder, lightning and snowfall rates of 3"/hour in Falls Church. In fact, my school bus broke down on the way home and I recall having to walk the rest of the way in the deep drifts. Here's a description of the storm from the National Weather Service, Sterling's DC Winter page:
The Veteran's Day Storm will not be forgotten by many Washington travelers. Almost a foot (11.5 inches) fell at National Airport. Prince Georges County, MD was hard hit with up to 13 inches of snow falling in a short amount of time. It caught motorists off guard and stranded cars on the Capitol Beltway. There were so many cars that snow plows could not get through to open the clogged arteries. Cars littered the roadway for more than 24 hours. The event precipitated the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response to future storms.

This storm struck before the days of lightning detection networks and Doppler weather radar. When thunderstorms began dumping heavy snow over the Fredericksburg VA, forecasters had no idea. The storm moved northeast across the southern Metropolitan area (Prince Georges County). It was not until the fast accumulating snow hit Camp Springs, where at the time the Weather Forecast Office was located, did forecasters realize what was happening.
See also MarylandWeather.com's post about the storm.

In tomorrow's post, I'll include the full weekend outlook along with sports and event forecasts.

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A taste of winter...

Jason Samenow @ 1:15 AM

The coldest morning of the season is here. When you head out this morning, it will be below freezing just about everywhere thanks to a strong, cold Canadian high pressure center. Reagan National should be near 32, Dulles 23 and BWI 27. This afternoon, under full sunshine, temperatures will recover, with highs near 50. (Yesterday's lows were 36 at National, 31 at BWI and 27 at Dulles).

The nice thing about November is that cold spells are typically short-lived. So by Thursday, we should be above 60 again. Great news for those who have Veteran's Day off. Of course, the flip side is that warm spells are also short-lived, and temperatures will drop Friday in the wake of another cold front.

Pictured: The outdoor ice skating rink at Reston Town Center yesterday on a cool, November afternoon. Yesterday's high at nearby Dulles was 49, ten degrees below average. Photo by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.

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Storms in space...

Jason Samenow @ 1:04 AM

Image courtesy NOAAOnce in a great while, the night sky presents us with the northern lights (or aurora borealis). Generally, they're only viewable at locations well to the north, but during strong storms (such as those happening now), they can be seen right here in the Washington area.

Here's how NOAA describes them:
The northern lights, also called the aurora borealis, is electromagnetic radiation caused by electrons colliding with molecules in the ionosphere. This spectrum of electromagnetic radiation ranges from infrared to ultraviolet. The visible spectrum is dominated by white and green light produced by excited oxygen molecules and pink light emitted from nitrogen.

When the sun is active, it often produces mass ejections that interact with Earth's magnetic field. Electric currents begin to flow in the upper atmosphere, and these currents produce the aurora borealis, which occurs almost simultaneously around both the north and south poles.
ExtremeInstability.com published some incredible photos of the northern lights taken Monday night in central Illinois. The photographer, a professional storm chaser, called the experience the "most amazing thing I've ever seen in my life. It beat every storm experience..."

The Baltimore Sun reports "unbelievable" light shows seen near Baltimore Monday night and anticipates the lights will remain in view through this evening.

Has anyone see them around here? Please let us know by commenting...

Back on the ground, look for a cool (and sunny) day today, with highs around 50. Tonight, a freeze downtown (low of 32) and a hard freeze in the suburbs (lows 22-30). The good news is that warmer air returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

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A Frosty? Week Ahead...

Jason Samenow @ 1:21 AM

A beautiful weekend ends (Sunday's high at Reagan National was 69, and Dulles and BWI each reached 71), and the reality of work confronts us, as does the wind and cold.

For today, in the wake of last night's cold front, it will be breezy and chilly, with highs only in the low 50s (temperature will not rise much during the afternoon).

Tonight, will be cold with temperatures near 30 in the suburbs, and 35 downtown. Time to bring in the outdoor plants, if you haven't already. Frost should be widespread, particularly in the suburbs.

Tuesday, expect sunny skies, but continued cool under Canadian high pressure. Highs again in the low 50s.

Tuesday night downtown DC may experience its first freeze of the season, with the low reaching 31 (25-30 in the suburbs).

Wednesday it will be a bit warmer, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s.

On Thursday, we may reach 60 as winds shift to southwest ahead of a cold front which may bring some showers Thursday night.

By Friday, after some morning showers, it should be breezy and cooler, with temperatures steady or falling in the afternoon. The timing of the passage of this system could change-- but that's the way it looks now.

Frost photo by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose. Photo was taken in Stafford, VA on Saturday morning.

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