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Frances, finally; Ivan, eventually...?

Jason Samenow @ 12:01 AM

Radar image, courtesy Intellicast.comBelieve it or not, I've been talking about Frances for two weeks now (see the post from 8/25). And today, she'll finally affect the weather in DC. Have the rain gear handy, because we'll have on and off showers, which will contain heavy downpours. Rainfall totals in the immediate area will be in the 1-3" rain through Thursday. Amounts will be higher in the mountains due to their proximity to the storm and orographic lift. The radar image on the left (from last night) shows the large area of rain headed northward. A flood watch is in effect for the entire area.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is also a slight risk of tornadoes in the region today. For what it's worth, Frances has spawned more tornadoes than all but one landfalling U.S. hurricane in recorded history. Check this page out for the latest watches and warnings (flood, severe thunderstorm, tornado, etc) issued for our area. Please comment if any noteworthy weather is occurring where you happen to be.

Hurricane Ivan, courtesy NOAA

I've now been promising more on Ivan for two days. Josh has informed me he is going to provide a full analysis of Ivan sometime today. In the meantime, here are a few notes:
  • Ivan reached Category 4 status further south than any hurricane in recorded history.
  • While Ivan weakened to a Category 3 storm on Labor Day, it reintensified back to Category 4 yesterday. It may well reach Category 5 status in the next several days.
  • Computer model forecasts generally take the storm through the Caribbean, over Cuba and then towards the Gulf of Mexico and/or Florida. The Tropical Prediction Center track projection is similar.

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