Friday, September 03, 2004
Frances Floundering or Flourishing?
Jason Samenow @ 7:53 AM
Hurricane Frances has weakened in the last 24 hours, and is now a Category 3 Hurricane. Satellite imagery shows that Frances' well-defined eye has collapsed, and the outflow is not as healthy as some dry air has infiltrated the storm. Accordingly, her pressure has risen. Having said that, Frances remains a large, powerful storm and could re-intensify before landfall.
Where is Frances going and when?: Frances is currently moving northwest towards the south central Florida coast. The steering currents for Frances are weak, so landfall may be delayed a bit from Saturday afternoon to Saturday night. However, the storm will be near the coastline and tropical storm conditions could commence as early as late this afternoon in Southeast Florida. I expect landfall itself to occur a bit north of what I forecasted the past couple days -- most likely between West Palm Beach and Vero Beach (I'm in basic agreement with the Tropical Prediction Center track).
Storm Impact in Florida: It should be emphasized that this is going to be a long duration storm and it will influence much of the Florida peninsula. The exact time and location of landfall are difficult to project because of the weak steering currents for the storm. The bottom line is that many areas in Florida will likely experience prolonged periods of torrential rainfall (exceeding 10 inches in cases), damaging winds and coastal erosion and flooding.
What happens after to Frances after Florida?: This part of the forecast is less certain, but she'll likely slowly move northward near the Georgia/Alabama border and produce flooding rains (Tuesday). The storm may then proceed towards the Ohio Valley or western spine of the Appalachians (Wed-Thursday), with the continued threat of flooding rains.
DC impact?: Even if the remnants of Frances move well to our west, she may well have a large shield of rain that begins affecting us late Tuesday. Right now, areas to our west stand the greatest chance of heavy (and possibly flooding) rains from Frances but this could change depending on the exact track, which will need to be refined.
Monitor the storm:
- High resolution visible satellite loop (click on the dot over the Bahamas)
- Miami radar
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