Thursday, September 16, 2004
Hurricane Ivan comes ashore
Josh Larson @ 12:00 AM
As I write this, Hurricane Ivan is just hours from coming ashore near Fort Morgan, Alabama - about 30 miles south of Mobile. It has sustained winds of 135mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane.
This prognosticator believes it will continue to weaken a bit more before landfall, most likely coming ashore as borderline strong-Category 3/weak-Category 4 hurricane (with sustained winds of near 125-130mph) close to 3am on Thursday.
Over the next 48 hours, Ivan is expected to bring very serious flooding to much of the Southeast U.S. In fact, widespread amounts of 5-10" may fall during this period as far north as Kentucky, and as far east as the western Carolinas. Some locations in coastal Alabama and Florida's panhandle may receive up to 15" of rain. In addition, numerous tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours as this dangerous hurricane comes ashore. In fact, by 10pm Wednesday night, CNN was already reporting tornado-related deaths from Hurricane Ivan.
Here is the TPC's latest track projection:
Note, however, that with a relatively flat, sluggish flow aloft (and the absence of a trough over the eastern U.S.), it now appears that Ivan's remnants will likely stall over central Virginia by Sunday. That may spell very serious flooding trouble for the western Carolinas, Kentucky, Tennessee, parts of West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, but will likely reduce significantly the risk for heavy, flooding rain over the immediate DC metro area. I believe that most of the DC metro area will see 2" of rain or less, with the possibility of much less than that even, depending on how quickly Ivan's remnants dissipate and are pushed out to sea.
Thus, Ivan's impact on the DC metro area looks to be less than previously expected:
Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with highs near 80.
Friday will be breezy with scattered showers; highs near 75.
Saturday will be breezy with scattered showers; highs near 75.
Sunday will be mostly cloudy with a stray shower; highs 70-75.
Check out some of the excellent links in Jamie's post below.
And, as always, check back with Capitalweather.com for ongoing coverage....
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