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Ivan headed for Mobile, AL

Jason Samenow @ 9:25 AM

Ivan is now on a crash course with Mobile, Alabama late tonight. He's moving just west of north and provided he doesn't make any unforeseen turns, Mobile (or some area pretty close-by) is the spot. Computer models forecasts are consistent with this track.

Mobile, Alabama Radar
Infrared Satellite Image

He'll likely hold his own until landfall at a Category 4 level (slight chance could weaken to a strong 3). So this will be a pretty devastating storm. For all the latest news, Google's news search will give you all you can handle. And WxNation's log has a nice set of organized links.

After landfall, the forecast is problematic. Steering currents are weak, so this thing may stall Saturday and dump obscene (dangerous) amounts of rain in the Southern Appalachians and/or Tennessee Valley through early next week (it may even stall over the deep South, which could reduce rainfall for us and improve the Friday/Saturday forecast for DC). For more technical discussions, see the Hydrological Prediction Center.

For the DC area, look for a damp showery day today as a weak wave moves through. Tomorrow looks good. It will be warm (low 80s) and on the humid side, but probably dry. On Friday, clouds will be on the increase with rain showers possible. The weekend looks unsettled as bands from Ivan's remnant rotate through. It's unclear how much rain will fall in the DC area, but areas to the southwest will likely see heavy amounts.

Finally, Tropical Storm Jeanne has formed and she will likely strengthen into a Hurricane after giving Puerto Rico rain and winds today. Current track projections take her towards the southeast U.S for the middle of next week. This hurricane season has not been for the faint of heart...

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