Wednesday, November 17, 2004
10-Day Outlook
Josh Larson @ 2:30 AM
Today's weather:
A rather nice day today, with partial sunshine and highs around 60. Cloud cover may increase just a bit as the day wears on, ahead of a weak disturbance approaching from the west. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight, with lows in the mid 40s.
A note about the last 10-day outlook
I was pleased with the accuracy of the 10-day outlook issued on November 4, when I called for near-normal temperatures during the first five days, and below-normal temperatures during the following 5 days as I thought the AO would go "negative" and an eastern trough would develop - both of which happened. I also forecast little or no precipitation. Though the average high/low for the period was 62/38, I forecast a 10-day average high/low of 55/35; the actual average high/low of the period was very close - 56/39, and there was only one day of precipitation, on November 12.
The next 10 days
The outlook for the next 10 days is not quite as clear-cut as the last 10-day outlook I issued, as there seems to be more model divergence as to what the how the jet stream may act. However, it appears likely to me that slightly above-average temperatures will prevail over much of the period. Towards the end of the period, however, probably during the first half of next week, a trough - see below image - is expected to develop over the eastern U.S., bringing with it the possibility of a moderate to heavy precipitation event around or just before Thanksgiving, and the likelihood for much cooler weather in its wake. A few specific points: (a) the next five days will likely feature above-average temperatures; (b) this weekend has the potential to be cloudy and rainy as a couple areas of low pressure may develop to our south and west; (c) next week will likely feature below-average temperatures as the aforementioned trough may bring a colder pattern to the East.
The average high/low for the period is 55/38, and I forecast temperatures overall to be just slightly above average and near 57/40. However, note that I am predicting average temperatures in the low 60s/mid 40s for the next five days, and in the low 50s/low 30s for the following five days. Precipitation will likely be at near- or above-normal levels, with several chances for rain.
A rather nice day today, with partial sunshine and highs around 60. Cloud cover may increase just a bit as the day wears on, ahead of a weak disturbance approaching from the west. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight, with lows in the mid 40s.
A note about the last 10-day outlook
I was pleased with the accuracy of the 10-day outlook issued on November 4, when I called for near-normal temperatures during the first five days, and below-normal temperatures during the following 5 days as I thought the AO would go "negative" and an eastern trough would develop - both of which happened. I also forecast little or no precipitation. Though the average high/low for the period was 62/38, I forecast a 10-day average high/low of 55/35; the actual average high/low of the period was very close - 56/39, and there was only one day of precipitation, on November 12.
The next 10 days
The outlook for the next 10 days is not quite as clear-cut as the last 10-day outlook I issued, as there seems to be more model divergence as to what the how the jet stream may act. However, it appears likely to me that slightly above-average temperatures will prevail over much of the period. Towards the end of the period, however, probably during the first half of next week, a trough - see below image - is expected to develop over the eastern U.S., bringing with it the possibility of a moderate to heavy precipitation event around or just before Thanksgiving, and the likelihood for much cooler weather in its wake. A few specific points: (a) the next five days will likely feature above-average temperatures; (b) this weekend has the potential to be cloudy and rainy as a couple areas of low pressure may develop to our south and west; (c) next week will likely feature below-average temperatures as the aforementioned trough may bring a colder pattern to the East.
The average high/low for the period is 55/38, and I forecast temperatures overall to be just slightly above average and near 57/40. However, note that I am predicting average temperatures in the low 60s/mid 40s for the next five days, and in the low 50s/low 30s for the following five days. Precipitation will likely be at near- or above-normal levels, with several chances for rain.
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