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October Re-Cap; Next 10 Days

Josh Larson @ 1:30 AM

For those of you still recovering from Election Day 2004, expect overcast skies, breezy conditions and periods of moderate rain today, as a pretty robust wave of low pressure pushes from the central part of the nation to the eastern seaboard. Over an inch of rain may fall in some locations, with the heaviest, steadiest rain expected during the afternoon hours. It will be chilly, with highs only around 50, and lows overnight in the low to mid 40s.

October Re-Cap
Weather last month was very close to normal for temperatures, with the average high/low of 65.7/50.8 at DCA, just half a degree below normal. Ironically, the highest temperature this month was recorded on the 31st, with a high of 79; the coolest temperature was the morning of the 18th, when the temperature dropped to 41. Precipitation was well below average, with 1.75 inches falling, some 1.5 inches less than normal.

10-Day Outlook
Long-term model guidance suggests a high probability for somewhat below-normal temperatures over the next 10 days for the Washington, DC area. Temperatures will average at close-to-normal levels over the next five days, but the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is likely to go "negative" sometime early next week, which will enhance the likelihood for cold, Canadian air to filter into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and will probably deliver below average temperatures as the eastern trough (see graphic) strenghtens. The average high/low over the next ten days is 62/38, but I expect, for the period, we'll see an average high/low of 55/35. The storm track does not look conducive to sustained periods of significant precipitation, though occasional, scattered precipitation can certainly not be ruled out. Therefore, I forecast a continuation of last month's below-normal precipitation notwithstanding today's rain.

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