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Everybody's favorite topic: snow

Jason Samenow @ 1:30 AM

Photo by Kevin AmbroseWith the high going above 60 today, no snow -- just clouds and some scattered showers. Rainfall amounts should be light (under 0.25") and I won't be surprised if the sun pokes out on a few occasions. In addition to the much above normal temperatures, expect a strong southwesterly breeze kicking up in the afternoon.

In weather cyberspace, there have been a few rumblings about a winter storm Friday into Friday night, but I don't see it. By the time the cold air arrives, the precipitation will have cutoff--I'm pretty confident about that. I still see no sign of our first snow event, although it will likely turn colder beginning Saturday.

My winter outlook has been posted for over a month, but I decided to create one more graphic to illustrate likelihoods of different amounts of snow this winter. The figure below shows my snowfall outlook probabilistically. That sounds complicated--but don't be intimidated. The graph is pretty easy to understand...
Snowfall probabilistic prediction

The graph peaks at 15", which is my prediction for the most likely snowfall. Notice, though, how the graph is skewed to the right (and that more of the area underneath the curve is beyond 15"). That signifies that I believe it is more likely that snowfall totals will exceed 15" than fall short of it.

Snow or no snow, highlights some of the best places in the area to view the holiday light displays. Check it out.

By the way, if you want to learn practically everything there is to know about the science and history of East Coast snowstorms, consider purchasing Paul Kocin's (of The Weather Channel) and Louis Uccellini's updated two-volume book, Northeast Snowstorms. I have the first volume and it has been my bible for understanding East Coast snowstorms. Suffice to say, I will be ordering the new two-volume edition.

Pictured (top left): An overcast day yesterday. By photographer, Kevin Ambrose.

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