Saturday, December 25, 2004
Increasing Odds for Snow Sunday????
Josh Larson @ 6:00 PM
The NWS official forecast now calls for a 30% chance of snow tomorrow for the immediate DC metro area; personally, I believe are chances are slightly higher - perhaps near 50% for flakes. This is a complex atmospheric setup, and the two main models we tend to rely on -- the "ETA" and "GFS" -- had poor initialization in this morning's runs; for the afternoon runs, the GFS appears to be somewhat better initialized, while the ETA appears to once again be quite poorly initialized - as compared to current radar and satellite trends.
The GFS suggests that light snow is possible in the immediate DC metro area (see image), with moderate to even heavy snow in our south and east suburbs. The ETA, on the other hand, is further east with the surface low, and suggests only light snow to our south and east, with snow not making it as far west as DC.
Below you will see the 18z GFS representation of how much precipitation will have fallen in the 36 hours preceding early Monday morning. I have the latest "printouts" from this model run which I will post here for entertainment value only, as they don't mean too much by themselves. Take them, at best, as potentialities from one model. Liquid precip listed first; 10:1 ratio assumed for snow for now.
DCA: .03" or 3/10" snow
Dulles: no precip
BWI: .03" or 3/10" snow
Aberdeen, MD: .09" or 9/10" snow
Andrews AFB: .04" or 4/10" snow
Salisbury, MD: .89" or 8.9" snow/mix?
Patuxent, MD: .28" or 2.8" snow/mix?
Dover, DE: .2" or 2" snow
This evening's models look to hold the key for tomorrow's event. If the ETA trends in the direction of the GFS, then that is good news for snow lovers. If the GFS and ETA continue to diverge, but the GFS continues to show the potential for snow in our area, we've still got a shot for snow. If the GFS trends considerably in the direction of the ETA, then our snow hopes may be dwindling.
As I said, this is a complex and evolving situation, so stay tuned to Capitalweather.com for updates.
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