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Snowflakes of mass destruction?

Jason Samenow @ 1:15 AM

Yes...the first threat of a winter storm has arrived. But is the threat like Saddam's weapons -- perceived but not real? Before I get to that, expect a sunny, but cold day today with a high near 40. (Yesterday's high and low at Reagan National were 41 and 30, respectively).

The winter storm possibility is Sunday into Monday. Any wintry precipitation (or any precip period) late Friday can pretty much be ruled out (a wave will develop, but well out to sea). On Sunday though, a Canadian low originating from Manitoba (aka a "Manitoba Mauler") will swing through the Ohio Valley towards the area and looks to redevelop off the coast of the Virginia capes. What I've often seen happen in this situation is that we get caught in the middle and don't get a lot in the way of precipitation. The original low dies out and gets robbed of moisture. The new low forms too far to the north and east to throw back significant precipitation into our area -- but goes on to nail Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

In any event, while I don't think this will be a big snow event for DC, it bears watching. Model projections of the storm's track and evolution will certainly evolve in the next several days. We'll keep you posted and provide increasing levels of forecast detail as the (at present hypothetical) storm draws nearer.

For those of you who visited the site last winter, I developed a scale for projecting storm impacts that I would post in the days leading up to a possible storm. Here's my early assessment:

Potential storm impact:

So the question becomes: Will area roads be a war zone or will I have to send out the CapitalWeather team to search for "missing" snowflakes of mass destruction next Monday...?

Have at it weather pundits.

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