Thursday, January 06, 2005
10-DAY OUTLOOK: Will Winter Ever Return?!?
Josh Larson @ 1:30 AM
Today's Weather:
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today, with scattered showers - especially during the morning - and very mild temperatures once again near 60.
10-Day Outlook:
It is still quite premature to sound the death knell on cold weather and snow this winter (only 2 weeks of "official" winter have now elapsed!), but all model guidance suggests that the next 10 days will continue to feature well above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern USA, including the Washington, DC area, and little or no chance for winter weather during this time.
This will make for quite a string of abnormally mild weather, as the past 7 days have featured an average high of 58 degrees, a whopping 15 degrees off the average high of 43; this is quite a significant temperature departure for a one week period. Though today will feature highs near 60, we will see a relative "cool-down" Friday through Sunday, with highs during this time in the upper 40's to lower 50's and lows in the mid to upper 30's. However, thereafter (i.e., next week) it appears that temperatures will run an average of 10-15 degrees above average. Even with the somewhat cooler weather this weekend, I expect the next 10 days will feature an average hi/low of 57/38 compared to the climatological average of 42/27. In fact, it appears quite unlikely that temperatures will fall below freezing in the immediate DC area for this entire period.
We continue to be locked into a stubborn atmospheric pattern that has three main features: (1) very significant ("high amplitude") ridging over Alaska, resulting in (2) a very pronounced trough draped over the entire western half of the nation, further resulting in (3) ridging over the eastern third of the nation, with mild air flowing into the region from the south and west. There appears to be no single, specific atmospheric pattern that has caused this persistent setup, and it does not appear to a direct result of our weak El Niño.
However, it does appear that this pattern may begin to break down somewhat by about January 15, as the ridging over Alaska pushes east, leading to a broader, weaker trough over much of the entire United States by around this time. So temperatures may begin to return to closer to normal levels by around the middle of the month. However, until then, it's going to continue to be downright mild!
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today, with scattered showers - especially during the morning - and very mild temperatures once again near 60.
10-Day Outlook:
It is still quite premature to sound the death knell on cold weather and snow this winter (only 2 weeks of "official" winter have now elapsed!), but all model guidance suggests that the next 10 days will continue to feature well above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern USA, including the Washington, DC area, and little or no chance for winter weather during this time.
This will make for quite a string of abnormally mild weather, as the past 7 days have featured an average high of 58 degrees, a whopping 15 degrees off the average high of 43; this is quite a significant temperature departure for a one week period. Though today will feature highs near 60, we will see a relative "cool-down" Friday through Sunday, with highs during this time in the upper 40's to lower 50's and lows in the mid to upper 30's. However, thereafter (i.e., next week) it appears that temperatures will run an average of 10-15 degrees above average. Even with the somewhat cooler weather this weekend, I expect the next 10 days will feature an average hi/low of 57/38 compared to the climatological average of 42/27. In fact, it appears quite unlikely that temperatures will fall below freezing in the immediate DC area for this entire period.
We continue to be locked into a stubborn atmospheric pattern that has three main features: (1) very significant ("high amplitude") ridging over Alaska, resulting in (2) a very pronounced trough draped over the entire western half of the nation, further resulting in (3) ridging over the eastern third of the nation, with mild air flowing into the region from the south and west. There appears to be no single, specific atmospheric pattern that has caused this persistent setup, and it does not appear to a direct result of our weak El Niño.
However, it does appear that this pattern may begin to break down somewhat by about January 15, as the ridging over Alaska pushes east, leading to a broader, weaker trough over much of the entire United States by around this time. So temperatures may begin to return to closer to normal levels by around the middle of the month. However, until then, it's going to continue to be downright mild!
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