Thursday, January 27, 2005
10-Day Outlook
Josh Larson @ 1:30 AM
Today's Weather:
First off, today's weather. A cold front pushed through the region yesterday afternoon, and it has ushered in much colder air which will last through the weekend. Though temperatures made it into the mid to upper 40's for much of the area yesterday, today's temperatures will be some 20 degrees cooler, and only in the mid 20's for highs under abundant sunshine. Breezy northwest winds may make for wind chills in the teens at times, so bundle up. Very cold tonight, with lows in the single digits in the cooler suburbs, and 10-15 in the city.
10-Day Outlook:
Dan did an excellent job yesterday of recapping the unusual contrast between very mild weather at the beginning of the month and the recent very cold weather we've experienced. With a trough over the Eastern US through the start of next week, we will continue to experience below-normal temperatures through Monday. After highs today in the mid 20's, Friday's highs will approach 30, with overnight lows in the teens. Both days will feature abundant sunshine. Saturday will feature partly sunny skies, with milder highs approaching 40 degrees, and lows in the 20's.
What about a winter storm next week? I know there are many snow lovers who visit Capitalweather.com. Unfortunately, I'm sorry to say that I believe there is a low chance for wintry precipitation in the Sunday-Tuesday period of next week. Models and climatology suggest that while a southern stream storm will develop by Sunday, there does not appear to be enough cold air present for frozen precipitation for our area. While there is a slight chance (<30%) of light overruning frozen precipitation on Sunday, I think the main story will be a rainy Monday into Tuesday; this situation bears watching, however, so the most ardent snow lovers might be able to hold onto some hope. I expect highs Monday to be in the low to mid 40's (just around the average of 44), and milder temperatures perhaps approaching 50 on Tuesday.
But why the milder air? We've been under the influence of a very stubborn trough over the Eastern US recently, but most models suggest that atmospheric pattern aloft will undergo a significant transition by the start of next week, with ridging over the West, a deep trough over the central US, and ridging over the Southeast - the last feature allowing for a milder, more southwesterly flow of air over our region.
While I admit that I have relatively low confidence regarding what will happen after Tuesday of next week, due mostly to significant model disagreement, it appears that the period Wednesday through Saturday of next week will feature fair weather with temperatures near to slightly-above the normal of 44/28.
Image of sunset over McLean Tuesday by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
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