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Saturday-Sunday Snow Outlook

Jason Samenow @ 1:44 AM

It's looking like some snow is a good bet Saturday night into Sunday as a storm passes to our south.

Here's my best estimate of a timeline for this event--

  • Snow begins today between 4 and 8pm first southwest of DC and last to the north and east. I wouldn't be surprised if the snow breaks out a little earlier than advertised in most other forecasts. Watch the radar this afternoon.
  • Light snow will continue overnight. Periods of moderate snow are possible to the south and southwest. Some sleet may max with the snow, particularly south and east of Washington.
  • Light snow should taper off from northwest to the southeast beginning around noon. (Just as the snow may begin earlier than expected, it may also end earlier than expected.)
Here's my overall storm assessment:

Overall storm assessment
Storm Impact:

Travelcast (Saturday night and Sunday):

Schoolcast (for Monday):

Of course, as is the case with most winter storms that affect our area, there's a good bit of uncertainty with this forecast. The models have been waffling a bit with the exact track of the storm and its intensity. They have been consistent in trending towards a colder solution, so I think that the DC area will get mostly snow -- although pockets of sleet are quite possible. Here's my latest snowfall probability assessment:
The bottom line is that I think there's a 50/50 chance of more than 2" of snow. Having said that I will officially call for 2-3" for the greater Washington, DC area (3 inches most likely in the southern suburbs). Here are what some of the other forecast outlets are predicting:
Channel 4 (Bob Ryan): 1-3"/some mix
Channel 5 (Sue Palka): 1-2"
Channel 7 (Doug Hill): light accumulation, a couple inches possible
Channel 9 (Topper Shutt): 1-2", maybe 3"
National Weather Service: "Light accumulations possible"

By the way, for those of you logging in from places to the south and southwest (like Fredericksburg and Charlottesville) -- a 3-5" snowfall looks like a decent bet. But no guarantee.

I'll update later today as necessary.

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