Saturday, January 29, 2005
Saturday-Sunday Snow Outlook
Jason Samenow @ 1:44 AM
It's looking like some snow is a good bet Saturday night into Sunday as a storm passes to our south.
Here's my best estimate of a timeline for this event--
Of course, as is the case with most winter storms that affect our area, there's a good bit of uncertainty with this forecast. The models have been waffling a bit with the exact track of the storm and its intensity. They have been consistent in trending towards a colder solution, so I think that the DC area will get mostly snow -- although pockets of sleet are quite possible. Here's my latest snowfall probability assessment:
The bottom line is that I think there's a 50/50 chance of more than 2" of snow. Having said that I will officially call for 2-3" for the greater Washington, DC area (3 inches most likely in the southern suburbs). Here are what some of the other forecast outlets are predicting:
Channel 4 (Bob Ryan): 1-3"/some mix
Channel 5 (Sue Palka): 1-2"
Channel 7 (Doug Hill): light accumulation, a couple inches possible
Channel 9 (Topper Shutt): 1-2", maybe 3"
National Weather Service: "Light accumulations possible"
By the way, for those of you logging in from places to the south and southwest (like Fredericksburg and Charlottesville) -- a 3-5" snowfall looks like a decent bet. But no guarantee.
I'll update later today as necessary.
Here's my best estimate of a timeline for this event--
- Snow begins today between 4 and 8pm first southwest of DC and last to the north and east. I wouldn't be surprised if the snow breaks out a little earlier than advertised in most other forecasts. Watch the radar this afternoon.
- Light snow will continue overnight. Periods of moderate snow are possible to the south and southwest. Some sleet may max with the snow, particularly south and east of Washington.
- Light snow should taper off from northwest to the southeast beginning around noon. (Just as the snow may begin earlier than expected, it may also end earlier than expected.)
| Overall storm assessment
Storm Impact: 
Travelcast (Saturday night and Sunday):  
Schoolcast (for Monday):   |
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Of course, as is the case with most winter storms that affect our area, there's a good bit of uncertainty with this forecast. The models have been waffling a bit with the exact track of the storm and its intensity. They have been consistent in trending towards a colder solution, so I think that the DC area will get mostly snow -- although pockets of sleet are quite possible. Here's my latest snowfall probability assessment:
Channel 4 (Bob Ryan): 1-3"/some mix
Channel 5 (Sue Palka): 1-2"
Channel 7 (Doug Hill): light accumulation, a couple inches possible
Channel 9 (Topper Shutt): 1-2", maybe 3"
National Weather Service: "Light accumulations possible"
By the way, for those of you logging in from places to the south and southwest (like Fredericksburg and Charlottesville) -- a 3-5" snowfall looks like a decent bet. But no guarantee.
I'll update later today as necessary.
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