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Heavy Snow Warning

Jason Samenow @ 12:02 PM

A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect for the entire region. The low forming in the Gulf of Mexico is now expected to take more of a coastal track, which increases the likelihood of significant snow along the I-95 corridor.

The following uncertainties remain:
  • How far off the coast will the low go? If it's too far offshore, DC proper and especially areas north and west of Fairfax and Montgomery County would see light accumulations.
  • How close to the coast will the low go? If the low takes a bit of more of an inland track, then the north and west suburbs get clocked, and DC points south and east mix with and/or change to rain.
  • How strong will the low be? Will it be just pretty strong or VERY strong?
  • What happens in the wake of the storm? A strong upper level wave follows in its wake -- will that prolong the snow and increase totals?
Factoring in all of the uncertainties, the possible accumulations for the area still could range from about 1" to 18" (yes, that high) depending on the track and strength of the low in relation to where you happen to live. The map below is a compromise forecast considering trends and the factors I've discussed.

Next update around 4pm, including an updated Schoolcast.

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