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Major snowstorm for area on track...

Jason Samenow @ 4:16 PM

A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect for the entire area. The low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is strengthening faster than forecast by the models, and its large shield of precipitation has dead aim on our area.

Overall storm assessment

Storm Impact:

Travelcast (for Monday):

Schoolcast (for Monday):

The graphic on the right shows snowfall exceedance probabilities for the area. Key points:
  • 90% chance of at least an inch
  • 2/3 chance of at least four inches
  • 1/3 chance of more than 10" of snow
  • most likely snowfall for DC proper is 6-7 inches
You may have noticed that I significantly increased the area covered by 6-10" accumulations (in the snowfall map). That is because I believe the storm may a bit moister than shown in earlier guidance giving its already strong intensity (some areas inside the 6-10" area will get more than that, 1 foot totals are possible in some places). Furthermore, there may be additional precipitation in the western portion of the region particularly, from the upper low coming in behind the main storm.

As far as closings go (particularly DC schools, and Federal Government-- which I think will open), the timing of the storm will play a big role. I will provide a full timeline of when the snow will start and how long it will last in my next update, which I will post before 11pm (and as early as I can). I'll also provide more info about schools...

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