Saturday, February 26, 2005
Mammoth storm looms, forecast challenge gargantuan
Jason Samenow @ 1:40 AM
A very significant East Coast storm is likely, starting late Sunday night. Depending on how you interpret the computers models and assess the overall weather pattern, you may conclude a heavy rain storm, a heavy snow storm, or something in between is the most likely outcome. Put me in the "in between" camp.Today's forecast, however, is clear cut. After a very cold start (lows 17-23), there will be plenty of sunshine with a high near 45. For Sunday, high clouds may increase late in the day, with highs in the low 40s.
Onto Sunday night, low pressure organizing in the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast. The exact track of the low is critical in determining the precipitation type for our area.
The National Weather Service provides a nice explanation of the implications of the track in the Special Weather Statement it issued yesterday:
AT THE PRESENT TIME THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS UNCERTAIN. ONE SCENARIO TRACKS THE STORM THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ... WHILE ANOTHER MOVES THE STORM FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE INLAND STORM TRACK WOULD BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...TURNING SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN MONDAY. THE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST WOULD FAVOR SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-95. SNOWFALL IN THIS CASE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.Based on all of the current information, here is my assessment of the storm:
 | Overall storm assessment Storm Impact: |
Note the following:
- I believe there is about a one in three chance this is mostly a rain storm
- The most likely outcome is snow to rain to snow, with a light to moderate net snowfall
- There is a small, but not insignificant likelihood (one in four) of a large snowfall, exceeding 6"
I must caution that the scenario I just described could be way off -- but it is my best guess given all of the guidance I've analyzed, my knowledge of climatology and my assessment of the overall pattern. I will try and update the site a couple times today and will gather input from the rest of the CapitalWeather team to produce a consensus forecast late tomorrow night, with updates on Sunday as the storm approaches.
Pictured: The freshly fallen snow is no match for the late February sun in Reston, VA yesterday. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose. Also, see the snow cover as viewed from space at Smog Blog.
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