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Mid-day update: Keep hope alive!

Steve Scolnik @ 1:30 PM

Despite the passage of a cold front last night, temperatures are warming up nicely under partly cloudy to sunny skies around the area. Temperatures ranged from 45 to 48 at noon and as high as 52 at 1pm in Culpeper; we should have no problem exceeding 50 in many locations. It's already 52 here on the sun-warmed Potomac weather patio.
There were some light to moderate showers last evening, mostly from the District southward. These were associated with a small low moving along the front through Virginia. I saw barely a trace here, but the official DC rain bucket collected 0.33" from rain which fell from about 6 to 9pm.

Looking Ahead
Matt is right that the seasonal climatological odds are turning increasingly against snow in our area. I don't think anyone ever got poor betting against snow in Washington! However, climatology includes the average of a lot of very interesting events, which is why we keep coming back every day to check out what Momma Nature has been cooking up for a blue-plate special in her Weather Grill. Right now, the pattern is becoming much more appetizing for those who prefer the snow section of the menu. This morning's models continue to bring a low out to our south late Thursday into early Friday. Although the track is too far south at this point to be really exciting for us, there are some enticing elements to consider:

(1) plenty of cold air
(2) strong northwesterly flow at upper levels from a ridge in western North America to keep it cold
(3) good PVA (positive vorticity advection) Vorticity is a way of measuring the spin in the atmosphere--an important element for storm development. For the mathematically inclined, it is the curl of the velocity vector. In fact, both models have a small vorticity maximum directly over us Thursday night.
(4) precipitation in our area

We'll keep you updated as the situation develops.

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