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Rain and Snow...More to come?

Josh Larson @ 1:30 AM

Yesterday's Rain
A robust area of low pressure that passed by our north and west yesterday brought moderate rain (which started as a burst of wet snow in some communities) to our area: DCA reported .49" of rain; Dulles reported .37" of rain; BWI reported .64" of rain. According to official observations, the precipitation started as a period of mixed rain, ice pellets, and snow overnight Sunday at DCA, and a period of light snow at Dulles and BWI. The brief frozen precipitation was due to a shallow layer of cold air which was quickly replaced by milder air as the day wore on.

Doppler estimated total rainfall, courtesy the NWS, shows widespread amounts of over .3", with much of the eastern and southern suburbs receiving upwards of .6"; a few isolated spots to the northeast of the District reported over an inch of rain.

Rain to come?
Today will feature a mostly cloudy morning, with partial sunshine returning in the afternoon. With a southwest flow of air aloft, I expect very mild temperatures. While the NWS is calling for highs in the mid 50s, I think temperatures will be much milder - in the low to mid 60s in many locations. The more sun your location sees, the higher the temperatures are likely to creep. In any case, a very nice day for February.

...Back to rain again on Wednesday, however, as a cold front and associated area of low pressure pushes through the area during the second half of the day. Expect scattered showers and windy conditions from early afternoon through the evening hours. Models suggest that precipitation will likely be on the light side, probably around a quarter of an inch. Highs on Wednesday - at least during the first half of the day - will continue on the mild side, and in the mid to upper 50s. But look out Thursday thorough Saturday, as temperatures behind the cold front will be much cooler; I expect highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the 20s during this period.

Snow to come??? as well as the meteorological community at large have been abuzz regarding a potential East Coast snowstorm during the second half of this weekend. There seems to be relatively good model agreement that the East Coast will experience a storm, and that snow will fall somewhere, but the track of this area of low pressure is unclear at this point, and so is the potential for snow in the DC area. Unfortunately, at this moment, temperatures look questionable/marginal to support snow. That being said, it seems like we have a better shot to see accumulating snow than we've had during the past several East Coast storms; in fact, my feeling is that the rain/snow line may form close to DC area with the possibility of a weak cold high to our north. The window for precipitation will likely be the second half of the day Sunday into the first half of the day Monday. My call is for a 60% chance for some snow somewhere in the DC metro area....

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