Thursday, March 24, 2005
10-DAY OUTLOOK: Dreary and Wet?
Josh Larson @ 2:00 AM
A potent area of low pressure brought low cloud cover and moderate rainfall to the DC metro area yesterday. Area wide temperatures averaged over 10° below normal, with most locations topping out around 46°. DCA, IAD, and BWI recorded very similar amounts of rain - between .8" and .9". Camp Springs, MD picked up 1.11", and the Larson household in Chevy Chase, MD measured nearly 1.6". Areas north of Central PA and northern NJ didn't fare nearly as "well," however, with widespread reports of 4-8" of snowfall.
Today's Weather:
Unfortunately, plenty of low-level moisture will linger today, so another rather cloudy, dreary day appears to be on tap, with still-cool temperatures only reaching 50° in most locations. A peak of sun, especially later in the day, can't be ruled out, but by and large we will see mostly cloudy skies. Not as cool tonight as last night, with lows in the upper 30's in the suburbs to the low 40's downtown.
10-Day Outlook:
I used the word "dreary" to describe today's weather, and unfortunately it appears that dreary might sum up much of the next week of weather. In addition, temperatures, which have already run considerably below normal for the month of March, will continue to linger at slightly below-average levels, much of that due to anticipated persistent cloud cover. The average high for the next 10 days is 63°, and I believe that we'll see high temperatures averaging closer to 57° during this period. Interestingly, cloud cover during the day tends to lower temperatures, but during the night tends to keep them up due to its insulating effect, so it's quite possible that low temperatures may actually run above average during this same time: the average low is near 37°, but I expect that low temperatures will average closer to 41°.
There is good computer model agreement that an energized southern storm track will dominate weather over our region for the next 5-7 days. The main culprit is a ridge over the western US with a sharp trough over the central US developing over the next several days, which will rev up the southern stream and allow for several waves of low pressure to push from the Southeast US into the DC area.
Wave #1 will bring an increase in cloudiness by Friday afternoon, with showery weather from late Friday into Saturday afternoon; rainfall will remain on the lighter side, probably between .25-.5"- Wave #2 approaching from the south will keep cloudy conditions over the region on Easter Sunday, with cool temperatures and widely scattered showers; at this point Easter does not appear to be a washout. This wave may strengthen considerably by early Monday morning, however, with periods of rain expected through Tuesday. Over an inch of rain may fall during this period.
- Wave #3 may bring more precipitation to the area by late Thursday or Friday.
Unfortunately this means that mostly cloudy to overcast skies will prevail during nearly the entire Friday through Tuesday period; expect a string of five days of dreary, oftentimes wet, weather. After Thursday's highs near 50°, temperatures will moderate somewhat on Friday and Saturday: expect highs both days in the mid 50's, with lows in the lower 40's. However, Easter looks like it will be on the cool side, with highs only near 50°, and lows in the upper 30's - with the aforementioned chance of showers. Temperatures will probably end up in the low to mid 50's on Monday.
At this point, the nicest weather over the next 10 days appears to be from late Tuesday through Thursday. During this period expect the return of the sunshine, with temperatures moderating to near-normal levels as slightly milder air enters the region from the south and west. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 60's Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. More rain is possible by Friday, with highs Friday and Saturday expected to be in the upper 50's to near 60°.
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