Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Rainy mid-day
Steve Scolnik @ 1:40 PM
Currently
After a break in the rain at mid-morning, more moderate to heavy rain moved into the area by 11am. The rain was ahead of a warm front extending from the Carolinas through southeastern Virginia at mid-morning. This was all rotating counterclockwise around a low-pressure area moving slowly eastward through Kentucky. Pressure changes indicate that a new low is forming east of the Delmarva peninsula. While temperatures in the DC metro area were generally 45-46 degrees at noon and 1pm, south of the front in the Norfolk area, temperatures were from 60 to 66 with light rain and fog. Further to the south, it was 70 and partly sunny at Raleigh, NC. Radar shows most of the region within a 50-mile radius of DC with rain at 1pm. Dulles was reporting heavy rain and National was moderate.
The rain is much needed, since even with the quarter inch which fell Sunday, the area was still over 1.5 inches below normal for the month through yesterday. February was also considerably below normal. Temperature-wise, we are still on the cold side, running over 4 degrees below normal so far this March.
For this afternoon, showers should continue, tapering down into the evening, with temperatures remaining in the mid 40's. There is a chance of a thunderstorm, but the most likely area for severe weather is the eastern Carolinas. For the rest of the forecast, scroll down to Dan's earlier post.
Super models
I was skeptical yesterday of the amounts of rain being forecast by the models, but as Dan pointed out in the earlier comments, rainfall amounts in the immediate area were close to an inch by 10am, and BWI was over 1.5 inches; at 1pm, the total at National was 1.39. That's on track to break the record for the date of 1.41 inches set in 1903. The timing was also very accurate, with rain beginning here just before 11pm last night. Precipitation is the hardest thing for models to forecast, after pressure and temperature, but I would say they did an excellent job in this case. We all owe a debt of gratitude to the dedicated folks at NCEP and its predecessor organizations who have worked so hard over the decades under often difficult conditions to make such results possible. Last year was the 50th anniversary of operational numerical weather prediction.
Snow lovers
OK, jtf and others, we feel your pain, but here's an excerpt from a winter storm watch for Ulster and Dutchess counties, NY and Litchfield county, CT, including the cities of Kingston and Poughkeepsie:
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. . .
After a break in the rain at mid-morning, more moderate to heavy rain moved into the area by 11am. The rain was ahead of a warm front extending from the Carolinas through southeastern Virginia at mid-morning. This was all rotating counterclockwise around a low-pressure area moving slowly eastward through Kentucky. Pressure changes indicate that a new low is forming east of the Delmarva peninsula. While temperatures in the DC metro area were generally 45-46 degrees at noon and 1pm, south of the front in the Norfolk area, temperatures were from 60 to 66 with light rain and fog. Further to the south, it was 70 and partly sunny at Raleigh, NC. Radar shows most of the region within a 50-mile radius of DC with rain at 1pm. Dulles was reporting heavy rain and National was moderate.
The rain is much needed, since even with the quarter inch which fell Sunday, the area was still over 1.5 inches below normal for the month through yesterday. February was also considerably below normal. Temperature-wise, we are still on the cold side, running over 4 degrees below normal so far this March.
For this afternoon, showers should continue, tapering down into the evening, with temperatures remaining in the mid 40's. There is a chance of a thunderstorm, but the most likely area for severe weather is the eastern Carolinas. For the rest of the forecast, scroll down to Dan's earlier post.
Super models
I was skeptical yesterday of the amounts of rain being forecast by the models, but as Dan pointed out in the earlier comments, rainfall amounts in the immediate area were close to an inch by 10am, and BWI was over 1.5 inches; at 1pm, the total at National was 1.39. That's on track to break the record for the date of 1.41 inches set in 1903. The timing was also very accurate, with rain beginning here just before 11pm last night. Precipitation is the hardest thing for models to forecast, after pressure and temperature, but I would say they did an excellent job in this case. We all owe a debt of gratitude to the dedicated folks at NCEP and its predecessor organizations who have worked so hard over the decades under often difficult conditions to make such results possible. Last year was the 50th anniversary of operational numerical weather prediction.
Snow lovers
OK, jtf and others, we feel your pain, but here's an excerpt from a winter storm watch for Ulster and Dutchess counties, NY and Litchfield county, CT, including the cities of Kingston and Poughkeepsie:
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. . .
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