Thursday, April 07, 2005
10-DAY OUTLOOK: An Active Pattern
Josh Larson @ 12:30 AM
Today's Weather:
Today weather will feature more clouds than sun, with still-mild temperatures in lower 70's in areas that see the most cloud cover to the mid 70's in areas that see more sunshine.
Some instability aloft, coupled with a low to our south, will allow for a 50/50 chance of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms are not expected to reach severe levels at this time. Scattered showers will likely linger through the evening and overnight hours, with mild overnight lows in the low to mid 50's in most locations.
10-Day Outlook:
The weather pattern over the next 10 days looks to be a rather active one, especially with a continued somewhat-energized southern jet stream -- which is not at all atypical for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center sums this pattern up nicely:
A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN [UNITED STATES]. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE OF A SPLIT-FLOW VARIETY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE [UNITED STATES].
I believe precipitation over the next 10 days will average at near to slightly-above average levels, with temperatures averaging close to normal for the next 5 days and probably somewhat below normal for the following 5 days. I disagree with the CPC's call for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period, as they have highlighted in their outlook. In my mind, it is quite possible that during the middle of next week, a backdoor cold front over the Northeast may lead to a cool-air damming situation with several days of cloudy, rainy weather and below-normal temperatures. I expect that temperatures during the next 5 days will average near 66/46, with temperatures over the following 5 days closer to 58/44; the average high/low during the 10-day period is 65/45.
After today's mild weather, we'll see temperatures drop some 15° by Friday. The reason for this cool down is that high pressure now stationed over the western Atlantic will shift further offshore, allowing for a cooler air mass to press down from the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Temperatures both days will be near 60° -- certainly nothing to complain about -- but about 5 degrees below average. Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with periodic showers, especially in the morning; it does not appear to be a washout, and the afternoon may be entirely dry. Cooler Friday night, with lows only in the low to mid 40's.
Saturday and Sunday will be quite nice, with a blend of clouds and sun both days; at this point, Sunday looks to be the sunnier of the two days. Highs Saturday will once again be near 60, with cool overnight lows near 40°. Slightly milder on Sunday, with highs right where they should be for this time of year -- near 65° -- with overnight lows in the mid 40's.
Monday and Tuesday look to offer up very nice weather for the DC area, with partly to mostly sunny skies both days and highs in the mid 60's to the lower 70's depending on the amount of sunshine that prevails. Overnight lows both nights will be in the 45-50° range for most locations.
Cooler, and potentially wet weather, looks to set in in the Wednesday through Friday period of next week, as models hint at the aforementioned cool air-damming setup, with moisture streaming in from the south. We'll call for highs during this period in the mid to upper 50's under mostly cloudy skies, with chances for scattered showers, or steadier rain possible Wednesday and Thursday, and perhaps lingering into Friday. Early indications suggest that weather should dry out, with the return of sunshine, by next weekend.
Get out and enjoy the cherry blossoms this weekend!
Both pictures, taken Wednesday, are courtesy CapitalWeather.com's photographer, Kevin Ambrose.
Today weather will feature more clouds than sun, with still-mild temperatures in lower 70's in areas that see the most cloud cover to the mid 70's in areas that see more sunshine.Some instability aloft, coupled with a low to our south, will allow for a 50/50 chance of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms are not expected to reach severe levels at this time. Scattered showers will likely linger through the evening and overnight hours, with mild overnight lows in the low to mid 50's in most locations.
10-Day Outlook:
The weather pattern over the next 10 days looks to be a rather active one, especially with a continued somewhat-energized southern jet stream -- which is not at all atypical for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center sums this pattern up nicely:
A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN [UNITED STATES]. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE OF A SPLIT-FLOW VARIETY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE [UNITED STATES].
I believe precipitation over the next 10 days will average at near to slightly-above average levels, with temperatures averaging close to normal for the next 5 days and probably somewhat below normal for the following 5 days. I disagree with the CPC's call for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period, as they have highlighted in their outlook. In my mind, it is quite possible that during the middle of next week, a backdoor cold front over the Northeast may lead to a cool-air damming situation with several days of cloudy, rainy weather and below-normal temperatures. I expect that temperatures during the next 5 days will average near 66/46, with temperatures over the following 5 days closer to 58/44; the average high/low during the 10-day period is 65/45.
After today's mild weather, we'll see temperatures drop some 15° by Friday. The reason for this cool down is that high pressure now stationed over the western Atlantic will shift further offshore, allowing for a cooler air mass to press down from the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Temperatures both days will be near 60° -- certainly nothing to complain about -- but about 5 degrees below average. Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with periodic showers, especially in the morning; it does not appear to be a washout, and the afternoon may be entirely dry. Cooler Friday night, with lows only in the low to mid 40's.
Saturday and Sunday will be quite nice, with a blend of clouds and sun both days; at this point, Sunday looks to be the sunnier of the two days. Highs Saturday will once again be near 60, with cool overnight lows near 40°. Slightly milder on Sunday, with highs right where they should be for this time of year -- near 65° -- with overnight lows in the mid 40's.Monday and Tuesday look to offer up very nice weather for the DC area, with partly to mostly sunny skies both days and highs in the mid 60's to the lower 70's depending on the amount of sunshine that prevails. Overnight lows both nights will be in the 45-50° range for most locations.
Cooler, and potentially wet weather, looks to set in in the Wednesday through Friday period of next week, as models hint at the aforementioned cool air-damming setup, with moisture streaming in from the south. We'll call for highs during this period in the mid to upper 50's under mostly cloudy skies, with chances for scattered showers, or steadier rain possible Wednesday and Thursday, and perhaps lingering into Friday. Early indications suggest that weather should dry out, with the return of sunshine, by next weekend.
Get out and enjoy the cherry blossoms this weekend!
Both pictures, taken Wednesday, are courtesy CapitalWeather.com's photographer, Kevin Ambrose.
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | 
Email this post
Email this post
