Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast
I have nothing to add to the recent forecast ideas of Jason and Steve other than to reiterate the uncertainty with the amount of rain we will receive Thursday through Saturday. So, enjoy Wednesday and the possibility that we may hit 80 degrees for the 1st time this year. Suffice it to say, we will easily surpass 80 degrees many times this year when we least want it.
Snow in April?
This past weekend's heavy wet snowfall in parts of Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania inspired me to look back at April snows in DC(or lack thereof), and indeed they are quite rare. Since National Airport(DCA) began official measurements in the winter of 1941-42, DCA has received a total of 1.3" of measurable April snow. On the other hand, Dulles Aiport(IAD), 25 miles to the west, has received 12.4" of measurable snow since they began measuring there in the winter of 1962-63. The last sizeable April snowfall at IAD was April 9, 1996 when 2.6" fell to further cement the 1995-96 winter as the biggest of all time at 61.9". There are no indications that we will see a repeat this year.
Summer Analogs
Many of the long term summer outlooks, such as the one from Keith Allen I referred to in last week's post, use analogs, or past years' weather as an indication of future weather. Keith Allen's primary analogs for this upcoming summer were 1957 and 1975. From my own research, I believe some other years that deserve mention are 1914, 1928, 1966, 1969, and 1978. Generally speaking a common theme among these five years was a weakening el-nino coming out of the previous winter combined with similar temperature profiles over the previous fall and winter, particularly in November and December. Of course, no two years are alike, but it will be interesting to see how this summer matches up with some previous DC summers.
Pictured above: Wayne, NJ this past weekend. A State of Emergency was called by the New Jersey Governor due to severe flooding.
I have nothing to add to the recent forecast ideas of Jason and Steve other than to reiterate the uncertainty with the amount of rain we will receive Thursday through Saturday. So, enjoy Wednesday and the possibility that we may hit 80 degrees for the 1st time this year. Suffice it to say, we will easily surpass 80 degrees many times this year when we least want it.
Snow in April?
This past weekend's heavy wet snowfall in parts of Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania inspired me to look back at April snows in DC(or lack thereof), and indeed they are quite rare. Since National Airport(DCA) began official measurements in the winter of 1941-42, DCA has received a total of 1.3" of measurable April snow. On the other hand, Dulles Aiport(IAD), 25 miles to the west, has received 12.4" of measurable snow since they began measuring there in the winter of 1962-63. The last sizeable April snowfall at IAD was April 9, 1996 when 2.6" fell to further cement the 1995-96 winter as the biggest of all time at 61.9". There are no indications that we will see a repeat this year.
Summer Analogs
Many of the long term summer outlooks, such as the one from Keith Allen I referred to in last week's post, use analogs, or past years' weather as an indication of future weather. Keith Allen's primary analogs for this upcoming summer were 1957 and 1975. From my own research, I believe some other years that deserve mention are 1914, 1928, 1966, 1969, and 1978. Generally speaking a common theme among these five years was a weakening el-nino coming out of the previous winter combined with similar temperature profiles over the previous fall and winter, particularly in November and December. Of course, no two years are alike, but it will be interesting to see how this summer matches up with some previous DC summers.
Pictured above: Wayne, NJ this past weekend. A State of Emergency was called by the New Jersey Governor due to severe flooding.
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