Sunday, May 08, 2005
Looking forward and backward
Jason Samenow @ 11:19 PM
The week ahead
As advertised in previous posts, the warming trend of the last several days will continue through midweek. Yesterday, by the way, was the first day this month with above average temperatures. The mercury reached 74 at Reagan National, 1 degree above the average. Here's the breakdown for the week ahead:
Today: Mostly sunny, and mild. Expect highs of 74-78.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny early with some increase in cloudiness in the afternoon. Highs should range from 76-80 across the area. There is a slight chance of a shower overnight.
Wednesday: A weak cold front will approach increasing the chance of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the day should be dry, however, with highs of 77-81. I'd put rain chances at about 30%.
Thursday: Behind the weak front, temperatures won't drop off much. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs 75-79.
Friday: This is where I disagree with the National Weather Service and Weather.com, who are forecasting highs well into the 70s. I see a cool Canadian high pressure area slipping south out of Canada, pushing through a backdoor cold front and shifting winds to northeasterly. I'm going to forecast highs of 64-68, and that could be generous. Stay tuned.
Saturday: Forecast confidence this far out isn't high, but I'll call for dry conditions and moderating temperatures as winds become more southeasterly. High should be in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Mild, with showers and storms possible late. Highs 75-80.
Average highs this time of year are in the mid 70s.
Spring so far
A reader (M Kady) asked if it was going to be one of those year's where we go from March coolness to summer heat in an instant, without any intermediate conditions. The data would suggest we've had a lot of the intermediate or springlike weather thus far and we're gradually moderating towards summer conditions.
The image above shows high temperatures this year versus climatological average. It has been a bit cooler than average, but we've had our share of spring. It may be the spring has seemed cooler than it actually has been because in 48 days, we've had 18 with over a trace of rain, and only 3 days above 80. However, the data reveals we've had quite a few intermediate days. In fact, we've had 24 dry days with highs above 60. All this boils down to the fact that about half of our spring days have been nice, with the other half being generally damp and/or cool.
How does this spring's characteristics compare to others? Good question. Perhaps Matt will shed some light on this tomorrow...
As advertised in previous posts, the warming trend of the last several days will continue through midweek. Yesterday, by the way, was the first day this month with above average temperatures. The mercury reached 74 at Reagan National, 1 degree above the average. Here's the breakdown for the week ahead:
Today: Mostly sunny, and mild. Expect highs of 74-78.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny early with some increase in cloudiness in the afternoon. Highs should range from 76-80 across the area. There is a slight chance of a shower overnight.
Wednesday: A weak cold front will approach increasing the chance of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the day should be dry, however, with highs of 77-81. I'd put rain chances at about 30%.
Thursday: Behind the weak front, temperatures won't drop off much. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs 75-79.
Friday: This is where I disagree with the National Weather Service and Weather.com, who are forecasting highs well into the 70s. I see a cool Canadian high pressure area slipping south out of Canada, pushing through a backdoor cold front and shifting winds to northeasterly. I'm going to forecast highs of 64-68, and that could be generous. Stay tuned.
Saturday: Forecast confidence this far out isn't high, but I'll call for dry conditions and moderating temperatures as winds become more southeasterly. High should be in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Mild, with showers and storms possible late. Highs 75-80.
Average highs this time of year are in the mid 70s.
Spring so far
A reader (M Kady) asked if it was going to be one of those year's where we go from March coolness to summer heat in an instant, without any intermediate conditions. The data would suggest we've had a lot of the intermediate or springlike weather thus far and we're gradually moderating towards summer conditions.
The image above shows high temperatures this year versus climatological average. It has been a bit cooler than average, but we've had our share of spring. It may be the spring has seemed cooler than it actually has been because in 48 days, we've had 18 with over a trace of rain, and only 3 days above 80. However, the data reveals we've had quite a few intermediate days. In fact, we've had 24 dry days with highs above 60. All this boils down to the fact that about half of our spring days have been nice, with the other half being generally damp and/or cool.
How does this spring's characteristics compare to others? Good question. Perhaps Matt will shed some light on this tomorrow...
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | 
Email this post
Email this post
