Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Perception Versus Reality
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast
Pleasant and seasonably cool weather will continue again today with Highs around 70 under decent cloud cover, with low 70s possible if the sun can win out. This will yield to very nice sleeping weather again tonight with lows in the low 50s.
Today's High Temps in Celsius Courtesy of Accuweather Shows the Coldest Air In The Pacific Northwest and New England
Wet, Dry, Warm, Cold
The streakiness of the weather so far in 2005 has not allowed us to get a good sense of how it has fared against norms. For instance, until this past Saturday's impressive deluge, the previous 30-40 days had been mostly dry at about 60% of normal precipitation, yet overall this year we are running slightly above normal at 1" over average. Additionally, we are running very close to normal temperatures in 2005, at one degree below normal through mid May. This steadiness is actually fairly common. Even though average yearly temperatures have gradually risen over time, there is much less variability in the overall yearly temperatures versus the more dramatic monthly variances that we experience. So while we get months or even seasons that we can characterize as cold or warm, wet or dry, whole years in which one type of weather predominates are uncommon. The year of 2003 was one such rarity as nine of the twelve months had below normal temperatures and was the coldest year since 1967, which is very impressive in this age of increasing temps. Furthermore, it was the wettest year in over 100 years. However, a year like 2003 is the exception rather than the rule.
Rain, Snow, and Sand?
In a remote, mountainous area in Northwestern China, 15 explorers working for a petroleum company were killed in a "freak" snow, rain and sandstorm. A local official said it was a once in a century event. In my opinion, I think we will continue to see these once in a lifetime events. Certainly part of the reason may be attributed to global warming and other environmental factors. However, I think an often overlooked reason is the lack of sample size with respect to our historical weather records. Thus we will continue to experience weather phenomena that while seemingly once in a lifetime or extraordinary, may actually not be as rare or novel as we think.
Pleasant and seasonably cool weather will continue again today with Highs around 70 under decent cloud cover, with low 70s possible if the sun can win out. This will yield to very nice sleeping weather again tonight with lows in the low 50s.
Today's High Temps in Celsius Courtesy of Accuweather Shows the Coldest Air In The Pacific Northwest and New England
Wet, Dry, Warm, Cold
The streakiness of the weather so far in 2005 has not allowed us to get a good sense of how it has fared against norms. For instance, until this past Saturday's impressive deluge, the previous 30-40 days had been mostly dry at about 60% of normal precipitation, yet overall this year we are running slightly above normal at 1" over average. Additionally, we are running very close to normal temperatures in 2005, at one degree below normal through mid May. This steadiness is actually fairly common. Even though average yearly temperatures have gradually risen over time, there is much less variability in the overall yearly temperatures versus the more dramatic monthly variances that we experience. So while we get months or even seasons that we can characterize as cold or warm, wet or dry, whole years in which one type of weather predominates are uncommon. The year of 2003 was one such rarity as nine of the twelve months had below normal temperatures and was the coldest year since 1967, which is very impressive in this age of increasing temps. Furthermore, it was the wettest year in over 100 years. However, a year like 2003 is the exception rather than the rule.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFK
It will be a beautiful, dry night for baseball with gametime temps in the mid to upper 60's falling to around 60 by the end of the game with calm winds.
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFK It will be a beautiful, dry night for baseball with gametime temps in the mid to upper 60's falling to around 60 by the end of the game with calm winds.
Rain, Snow, and Sand?
In a remote, mountainous area in Northwestern China, 15 explorers working for a petroleum company were killed in a "freak" snow, rain and sandstorm. A local official said it was a once in a century event. In my opinion, I think we will continue to see these once in a lifetime events. Certainly part of the reason may be attributed to global warming and other environmental factors. However, I think an often overlooked reason is the lack of sample size with respect to our historical weather records. Thus we will continue to experience weather phenomena that while seemingly once in a lifetime or extraordinary, may actually not be as rare or novel as we think.
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