Thursday, June 16, 2005
10-Day Outlook: From sultry to comfortable
Josh Larson @ 1:00 AM
Today's weather
Tuesday's highs were in the low to mid 90s with unbearable humidity; yesterday's highs were mostly in the upper 80s with much more comfortable humidity levels; today's weather will be even nicer, with low levels of humidity for this time of year and temperatures, under mostly sunny skies, maxing out at below-normal levels -- near 80 for highs. Clear and quite pleasant tonight, with lows in the lower 60s downtown and the mid to upper 50s in the cooler suburbs.
Verification of last week's outlook
I'm quite pleased with how last week's 10-day outlook fared. I predicted that the period from Thursday, June 9 through Tuesday, June 14 would feature highs each day from 86-92; that verified perfectly. I also said a cold front would push through late Tuesday or Wednesday, dropping temperatures in its wake; that, too, happened. Finally, I said that Thursday through Saturday would "be quite pleasant, with the likelihood of lower humidity levels, and pleasant temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for afternoon highs and in the upper 50s to mid 60s for overnight lows"; turns out this will verify quite as well. Three-for-three ain't bad.
What a difference a cold front makes
As, if not more, noticeable than the drop in temperatures over the last 60 hours is the significant drop in humidity levels. Dew points were at unbearably tropical/muggy levels on Tuesday - in the low to mid 70s - but (like the second half of the day yesterday) they will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s today. That means it won't be nearly as oppressive out. And low humidity levels, at least for June, will remain with us through the weekend as temperatures stay at comfortable levels. See the water vapor satellite image at right for the atmospheric reason behind this change in sensible weather.
10-Day Outlook: Thursday, June 16 - Monday, June 20
Quite pleasant weather will be with us over the next five days, with temperatures at nearly steady levels, with abundant sunshine, and relatively low humidity levels for this time of year, especially compared to the past week's heat and humidity wave. Precipitation over the next 5 days will also be negligible, with no more than a 10% chance of a passing shower each day. High temperatures today through Monday will range from 77-83, with low temperatures from 59-65, though cooler in the suburbs.
10-Day Outlook: Tuesday, June 21 - Saturday, June 24
Though a trough will prevail over the area for the first five days of the outlook, models and climate signals point to weak ridging returning to the area during the second half of the outlook period. Still, temperatures and humidity will moderate to only near-normal levels, so I don't expect a return of the past week's nearly unbearable heat and humidity. The atmosphere will also be a bit more juicy during this time period, so I expect a 25-50% chance of garden variety, hit-and-miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Still, most days should feature at least partly sunny skies. High temperatures during this period will range from the mid to upper 80s, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, though slightly cooler in the suburbs.
Tuesday's highs were in the low to mid 90s with unbearable humidity; yesterday's highs were mostly in the upper 80s with much more comfortable humidity levels; today's weather will be even nicer, with low levels of humidity for this time of year and temperatures, under mostly sunny skies, maxing out at below-normal levels -- near 80 for highs. Clear and quite pleasant tonight, with lows in the lower 60s downtown and the mid to upper 50s in the cooler suburbs.
Verification of last week's outlook
I'm quite pleased with how last week's 10-day outlook fared. I predicted that the period from Thursday, June 9 through Tuesday, June 14 would feature highs each day from 86-92; that verified perfectly. I also said a cold front would push through late Tuesday or Wednesday, dropping temperatures in its wake; that, too, happened. Finally, I said that Thursday through Saturday would "be quite pleasant, with the likelihood of lower humidity levels, and pleasant temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for afternoon highs and in the upper 50s to mid 60s for overnight lows"; turns out this will verify quite as well. Three-for-three ain't bad.
What a difference a cold front makes
As, if not more, noticeable than the drop in temperatures over the last 60 hours is the significant drop in humidity levels. Dew points were at unbearably tropical/muggy levels on Tuesday - in the low to mid 70s - but (like the second half of the day yesterday) they will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s today. That means it won't be nearly as oppressive out. And low humidity levels, at least for June, will remain with us through the weekend as temperatures stay at comfortable levels. See the water vapor satellite image at right for the atmospheric reason behind this change in sensible weather.10-Day Outlook: Thursday, June 16 - Monday, June 20
Quite pleasant weather will be with us over the next five days, with temperatures at nearly steady levels, with abundant sunshine, and relatively low humidity levels for this time of year, especially compared to the past week's heat and humidity wave. Precipitation over the next 5 days will also be negligible, with no more than a 10% chance of a passing shower each day. High temperatures today through Monday will range from 77-83, with low temperatures from 59-65, though cooler in the suburbs.
10-Day Outlook: Tuesday, June 21 - Saturday, June 24
Though a trough will prevail over the area for the first five days of the outlook, models and climate signals point to weak ridging returning to the area during the second half of the outlook period. Still, temperatures and humidity will moderate to only near-normal levels, so I don't expect a return of the past week's nearly unbearable heat and humidity. The atmosphere will also be a bit more juicy during this time period, so I expect a 25-50% chance of garden variety, hit-and-miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Still, most days should feature at least partly sunny skies. High temperatures during this period will range from the mid to upper 80s, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, though slightly cooler in the suburbs.
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