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The week ahead

Jason Samenow @ 12:03 AM

All in all, it looks like a warm and humid work week, followed by slightly cooler and dryer conditions for the upcoming holiday weekend. The day-by-day breakdown follows...

Today, the tropical disturbance that affected the Carolinas and the Eastern Shore over the weekend should stay to our east. The better part of the day should be dry although some storms could develop in the afternoon and evening (30% chance) given the presence of some tropical moisture. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday should be carbon copies: Warm and humid, with a 30% chance of afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures look to be in the upper 80s.

Thursday may crack 90, with a just a slight chance of storms.

Friday may bring the best chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Highs again should be in the upper 80s.

Right now, the weekend looks excellent (assuming the front clears the area Friday night, which is not certain). It should be dry, and less humid, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. As always, check back throughout the week for further details about the forecast for the Holiday weekend.

Forecast Grading/Competition

Starting this week, in our week ahead forecast chart (top right), I'm going to feature a "guest" high temperature forecast which I will compare with mine at the end of the week and grade (using the same criteria I've used to grade my own the last couple weeks). I'd figure I'd start with Channel 9's Tony Pann as he has been a supporter of the site and seems to enjoy good-natured competition (evident by his running competition with Justin Berk on his radio program).

I actually made my forecast before looking at Tony's (this will be standard practice) and was struck by how similar our forecasts are when I compared the two. Given the similarities, it's unlikely either of us will blow the other away. In future weeks, I'll include other forecasts from various sources/outlets for comparison, and will eventually seek volunteers from anyone (i.e. any site visitor) to go head-to-head in this excercise. So start sharpening up those forecasting skills.

Last week's forecasting earns grade of A

The results are in for the past week, and I was within a remarkable 1 degree per forecast on average. As a reminder, here is the scale I developed to evaluate high temperature forecasts:

Within 2.0 degrees/per forecast = A
Within 2.0-3.0 degrees/per forecast = B
Within 3.0-4.0 degrees/per forecast = C
Within 4.0-5.0 degrees/per forecast = D
Not within 5 degrees/forecast = F

I probably won't do this well often, as it's tough to be consistently within 2 degrees, especially on days 5, 6 and 7. Here is a summary (to the right) of what was forecast last Monday and what actually happened during the week.

I remember a certain visitor challenging the wisdom of my conservative high temperature forecasts for the weekend and offering to have me grade his forecast. For his sake, it's a good thing I didn't take him up on the offer. He may get his chance later, though.

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