Thursday, July 07, 2005
Awaiting Cindy
Steve Scolnik @ 3:50 PM
Flash flood watch remains in effect from 8 pm EDT this evening to Friday afternoon.
Threat for isolated tornadoes this evening.
By midafternoon, a few light showers ahead of the rain from the remnants of Cindy had broken out around the Washington region, but these were very spotty. Here in west-central Montgomery County, we have seen nary a drop so far, as the sun continues to peek through the clouds. The bulk of the heavier rain has made its way into eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, and west of I-81 in Virginia. Further to the south, there is a band of heavy thunderstorms from west of Greensboro, NC southward to near Charlotte and on into South Carolina. A simple persistence (trend-following) forecast might imply that the forecasts of heavy rain for this area were "all wet". The latest model run this afternoon, however, takes the area of maximum vorticity (spin) left over from Cindy's circulation eastward across the Washington area and intensifies it by 2am tonight, keeping it over us into tomorrow morning. Since spin in the atmosphere has the effect of "squeezing" it like a sponge, it increases precipitation. So, there is still good justification for expecting substantial rain from this system tonight and tomorrow morning.
Outlook
For the remainder of this afternoon and this evening, there will be a few scattered showers around the region. Rain will become heavier by midnight, continuing through tomorrow morning and tapering off in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms are possible, and the National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement indicating the possibility of tornadoes from Charlottesville northeast to DC and Baltimore and eastward to the Bay. The probability of precipitation will increase to near 100% by 8am tomorrow, decreasing to 50% by evening and 30% Friday night. Lows tonight should be near 70, highs tomorrow in the mid 70s.
Tropical Topics
Dennis became a category 2 as of 8am, and is up to 110 mph as of the 2pm advisory, just below category 3. It was passing about 65 miles northeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 105 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. It is moving northwest at 15 mph on a track which will take it into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. For the U.S., a hurricane watch is in effect for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the southern Florida peninsula (Golden Beach southward on the east coast and Bonita Beach southward on the west coast).
Threat for isolated tornadoes this evening.
By midafternoon, a few light showers ahead of the rain from the remnants of Cindy had broken out around the Washington region, but these were very spotty. Here in west-central Montgomery County, we have seen nary a drop so far, as the sun continues to peek through the clouds. The bulk of the heavier rain has made its way into eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, and west of I-81 in Virginia. Further to the south, there is a band of heavy thunderstorms from west of Greensboro, NC southward to near Charlotte and on into South Carolina. A simple persistence (trend-following) forecast might imply that the forecasts of heavy rain for this area were "all wet". The latest model run this afternoon, however, takes the area of maximum vorticity (spin) left over from Cindy's circulation eastward across the Washington area and intensifies it by 2am tonight, keeping it over us into tomorrow morning. Since spin in the atmosphere has the effect of "squeezing" it like a sponge, it increases precipitation. So, there is still good justification for expecting substantial rain from this system tonight and tomorrow morning.
Outlook
For the remainder of this afternoon and this evening, there will be a few scattered showers around the region. Rain will become heavier by midnight, continuing through tomorrow morning and tapering off in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms are possible, and the National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement indicating the possibility of tornadoes from Charlottesville northeast to DC and Baltimore and eastward to the Bay. The probability of precipitation will increase to near 100% by 8am tomorrow, decreasing to 50% by evening and 30% Friday night. Lows tonight should be near 70, highs tomorrow in the mid 70s.
Tropical Topics
Dennis became a category 2 as of 8am, and is up to 110 mph as of the 2pm advisory, just below category 3. It was passing about 65 miles northeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 105 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. It is moving northwest at 15 mph on a track which will take it into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. For the U.S., a hurricane watch is in effect for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the southern Florida peninsula (Golden Beach southward on the east coast and Bonita Beach southward on the west coast).
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